Single game which shows flaws in power ranking

[Antimatter]

Looking above, it appears Northlake Christian tied Country Day this week.
 
Country Day only has 4 wins but has played one of the toughest schedules I have seen including facing the 4 top ranked D1 teams in the last coaches poll and the number 1 and 6 teams in DII.  I applaud their coach for challenging his players with the schedule and they and the teams they play should not be penalized for it.

With the way the power rating is set up, Northlake Christian will get 4.5 points for the tie.  That is a low number to average in this late in the season.

My biggest worry is that this type of anomaly will cause a lot of coaches to get "cute" in scheduling.  Perhaps looking for an average team in a bad district while avoiding startup programs and a team like Country Day that went all in on their schedule.

Country Day also was bold in their scheduling this year but their reward is a 24 seed.  

At least when the coaches were involved, something other than a computer was doing the seeding.

I do not disagree with using the power ratings but it needs some tweaking.

[coachray40]

Actually Northlake will get 5.875 (2.5 for the tie, 75% x 4=3 for CDs wins, and .375 for CDs tie. Total 5.875)points for the tie. Not that it makes a tremendous difference but thats the correct number. We will come back to that

Really, I dont see what the real problem is here--except that Northlake tied a 4-9-0 team. You make a compelling arguement about Country days schedule, but all theyhave to show for it is a 4-9 record. CD certainly benefitted from the draw more than Northlake, but all CD is, regardless of schedule, is a 4-9 team who was rated 24th in the last power ranking.

Now, I beleive the concern here is Northlakes risk of losing ground and possibly the #1 seed because of this result (a game they certainly could have won, but didnt) due to its potentially adverse effect on the power ratings. It might initially seem that way until you look at the latest power ratings with have Northlake a full .70 points meaning that #2 University would have to make up .70 points per game over the compete season to just catch up with Northlake--and that would be if Northlake and all of its results were frozen in time and gained nothing. University only played 1 game this week, against St Charles and while they won, they only gained 11 points for the win--.59 BELOW their current rating. That makes that .70 per game now a .73.

Now, while you were keen to point out Northlakes loss of points this week to Country day, you didnt mention the 21 POINTS they got from beating Hannan last Tuesday. That 21, plus the 5.875 from Country Day will give them a 13.43 average for just the week--over a full point more than theri current 12.29, and that doesnt factor in amy of the residual points they will get from their other opponents. Northlake probably extended their lead.

When we say we need to make changes. lets be sure we look at the whole picture. Country day got rewarded for playing a tough schedule and will benefit from this draw. Northlake had an obligation to win this game, but didnt--thats a team performance problem not one with a ratings system. The same way Northlake benefitted from beating a quality opponent in #6 Hannan, they were put at a disadvantage from not getting a result vs Country day (a win would have given them 9.5 points). the power rating system comes with two sides to it and you have to accept both. As Bobby McMahon would say, "you cant suck and blow at the same time"

[Antimatter]

Perhaps something along the lines that if you play 17 games or more, your lowest two point games are dropped might work.

No, I don't think it will cause major problems. I just hate totally removing the human element from seeding.

[jk52]

If you want to show a single game with a flaw in the power rankings system, it would be the game Northlake plays against Pine this week. Northlake will get 5.0 points for the win, while Pine will pick up about 7.5 points for the loss.

[cdcajunsoccer]

Do the power rankings take into account a Division I team that plays Division I and II teams in any manner, or is it based on a straight W-L-T formula?

[p_malinich]

Jan 26, 2015 15:52:06 GMT -6 cdcajunsoccer said:

Do the power rankings take into account a Division I team that plays Division I and II teams in any manner, or is it based on a straight W-L-T formula?

No and no.  

Division doesn't matter.

WLT doesn't matter.

# of wins they have (defined as wins + half of ties) is only thing that matters about your opponent - many threads elaborate on the details.

[cdcajunsoccer]

Mr. Malninich, thanks much for the quick explanation. I don't follow the threads, but this one caught my eye as I thought it might be in reference to the Country Day v. Northlake Christian game that I watched on Saturday. While Coach Benji Benjamin's decision to have his Country Day girls play top-rated D-I and D-II teams may not help with the team's D-III "power rankings," winning enough play-off games to get to the championship is ultimately what matters.

[Antimatter]

cdcajunsoccer,

I agree that your players will most certainly have had more big game experience than most DIII teams and be battle tested for the playoffs. I applaud the coach. I wish there was a better way to award that in the seedings.

[p_malinich]

Jan 26, 2015 20:50:10 GMT -6 cdcajunsoccer said:

Mr. Malninich, thanks much for the quick explanation. I don't follow the threads, but this one caught my eye as I thought it might be in reference to the Country Day v. Northlake Christian game that I watched on Saturday. While Coach Benji Benjamin's decision to have his Country Day girls play top-rated D-I and D-II teams may not help with the team's D-III "power rankings," winning enough play-off games to get to the championship is ultimately what matters.

Call me Paul.  No problem.

Playing those top teams does help you get battle ready & in theory should help Power Ratings if those top teams have mustered a lot of wins.  It certainly won't hurt.

And yes, the path to the finals is what matters.  Our guys did it last year after being seeded #5 by the Coaches and won it all (on the road for Quarters and Semis).  It's a fun time & the battle stories get relived over and over again.

[cuttysark]

Coach Benji always gets the best out of his team towards the end of regular season. No team wants to match up with him in playoffs. Last year he lost a shoot out in quarterfinals. the tough matches his team played pays huge dividends in playoffs. Power rankings dont reward playing a really hard schedule with bad results but the strength of a team to get results in playoffs. D 3 has a number of teams that could step up and wIn this year. I'm praying not to see Coach Benji and his team early or late this year. Much respect!

[Antimatter]

YOu are certainly correct about DIII being wide open. It will be an exciting playoffs.

[cdcajunsoccer]

Thanks for the comments by Paul and by cuttysark. Paul, I also know what it's like to have a son on a young team that plays tough and hard for years and then wins state when your son is a senior, as that happened with my son's team in 2012. Now I'm routing for his "little" sister's team to follow stead, but she is a sophomore...

[warrior]

I don't have the answer to the problem but somehow there needs to be something put in place for teams that are not power houses to be able to boost their power ratings we struggle every year with trying to get games against better teams. We're never able to get above about 25th because unless we meet these teams in tournaments they will not schedule against you. I'm not saying we have the best team but gosh the kids need the chance to play good teams also, who knows what teams are missing play offs due to lack of being able to get ranked high enough to make it. Plus you have areas in state that you have very limited teams to play with out traveling 2 to 3 hrs. When I was in school we were considered a hick school but we had a powerhouse baseball team we were B class and we could not get an A class school to schedule a game against us because it was not cool to get beat by a B class school. So my challenge is coaches give these schools a chance they just may surprise you how well they do play and challenge your team.

[laffysoccermom]

You may have to do tournaments to get those games.

We have a really strong boy's basketball team. They played in numerous tournaments with larger schools early in season. I'm not privy to why but I think combo of power rankings and to challenge team as our district isn't strong from what I can tell.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I537 using proboards

[coachray40]

So far in this thread we have gone from one edge of the spectrum to the other.  One complaint that a whale loses out on points because of playing a minnow to a complaint from a minnow about not getting a chance to play the whales.  Interesting...... 

It seems to me that there are two clearcut issues/problems that drive the discussion about the power rating system-

1) most people simply dont understand how it works. Once you really do understand, I believe you'll find it a fair and equitable system for everybody

2) while many who have complaints base it on the system, the perceived problems have more to do with scheduling than power ratings

In both cases, the answer/short term solution is the same.......GIVE IT SOME TIME.  Right now, early PR discrepancies are working themselves out, and the teams are settling in to their proper spot in the power rankings.   With the exception of 2-3 teams overall on both the boys and girls side combined(and some of those in my opinion who will be exposed later as being overrated), the coaches polls and the PRs are usually within 3-5 places of each other. Outside of the top 4 in each division, it doesnt really matter. Power ratings have helped some teams gain coaches poll recognition, as well as help the coaches question the validity of some of their name recognition picks.  I'll also offer this--just because you dont like or agree with your power rating based placement doesnt mean you dont belong there.

This the first year for this system, and most HS programs do the bulk of their scheduling 8-10 months in advance.  Combine that with the opening of new schools, playing startup programs, and district mandated matchups, and we have a "perfect storm" of controversy surrounding where teams think they should be all because we are learning how to do something for the first time using schedules we made a year ago.

So, lets try and do a few things before we just trash this new system (I am a big fan of it, and my team most likely will NOT make the playoffs).  First, take some time to truly understand how the system works--understand the math, track the other teams, encourage your coach and others to report their scores in a timely manner and get involved as a knowledgeable soccer fan. Second, give your coach a chance to see how he/she needs to schedule next year. My take is that schools will start scheduling at the same competitive level more often than these mismatches we see now (district notwithstanding)--that is a good thing for everybody.  Add to that a movement away from the 2x each approach of district games, and an overall reduction of games per team and we will start seeing more quality matchups, more evenly played games, and hopefully a corresponding growth in fanbase interest as the games become more competitive and exciting.

The final thing that will help is getting your AD/Principal to vote for the new 4 division split.  This will help eliminate the need for the big mismatches, especially in the current DIII.  Get the teams playing closer, more competitive matches across the board.  Teams can still step out and challenge themselves, and both whales and minnows will find the process more to their liking.

Just give it time

[Antimatter]

I do think it needs time. While I note flaws, I still like it better than purely human hands because there is no way human hands alone can fairly evaluate each team.

Another solution is to move to larger districts. When you have a larger number of teams playing common opponents it tends to make a power rating system such as this more precise.

I have faith that tweaks will be done if needed. But I do fear this will push SOME coaches to schedule for points rather than a schedule that benefits their team. And I am concerned about teams wanting to avoid new programs because of the lack of points to be had.

[warrior]

I was not saying jump and scrap anything and yes with time it will hopefully become better. We minnows don't always get swallowed by the whales lol. I think splitting things up would give better chances for all. I just want to see every hard working athlete and team have their chance to shine.

[uhscubs1]

One thing the PR does as well is it counts a 1 goal win the same as a 10+ goal win.

[futbol22]

Jan 27, 2015 10:10:52 GMT -6 Antimatter said:

I do think it needs time. While I note flaws, I still like it better than purely human hands because there is no way human hands alone can fairly evaluate each team.

Another solution is to move to larger districts. When you have a larger number of teams playing common opponents it tends to make a power rating system such as this more precise.

I have faith that tweaks will be done if needed. But I do fear this will push SOME coaches to schedule for points rather than a schedule that benefits their team. And I am concerned about teams wanting to avoid new programs because of the lack of points to be had.

While it may turn out that the Power Rankings works out, I don't think you have a very good basis for saying "there is no way human hands along can fairly evaluate each team". Last year in Div I, the top 8 teams in the Coach's Poll made it to the quarterfinals. All 8 in the PR's didn't make it.  OK, that is just one division in one year. It will be interesting to see which system would have worked better this year.

I still would like to see the tweak that Arcangel recommended to weight your opponent's win percentage instead of their wins.  "Should you get the same points for beating a 15-15 team as you get for beating a 15-0 team?"

[p_malinich]

Jan 27, 2015 20:43:02 GMT -6 futbol22 said:

Jan 27, 2015 10:10:52 GMT -6 Antimatter said:

I do think it needs time. While I note flaws, I still like it better than purely human hands because there is no way human hands alone can fairly evaluate each team.

Another solution is to move to larger districts. When you have a larger number of teams playing common opponents it tends to make a power rating system such as this more precise.

I have faith that tweaks will be done if needed. But I do fear this will push SOME coaches to schedule for points rather than a schedule that benefits their team. And I am concerned about teams wanting to avoid new programs because of the lack of points to be had.

While it may turn out that the Power Rankings works out, I don't think you have a very good basis for saying "there is no way human hands along can fairly evaluate each team". Last year in Div I, the top 8 teams in the Coach's Poll made it to the quarterfinals. All 8 in the PR's didn't make it.  OK, that is just one division in one year. It will be interesting to see which system would have worked better this year.

I still would like to see the tweak that Arcangel recommended to weight your opponent's win percentage instead of their wins.  "Should you get the same points for beating a 15-15 team as you get for beating a 15-0 team?"

While I'm one of the numbers nerds that is helping to crunch a lot of the PR impacts (mostly on the boys side), I'm not necessarily 100% locked in.  I clearly see advantages and disadvantages, both of which I also saw with the Coach's Poll in years gone by.

That said, I continue to hear that the Coach's Poll is better because of the how teams did in playoffs and that the PR didn't reflect the same thing.  I understand what you're saying, but I think it's comparing slightly different things.  Since the Coach's Poll dictated the seedings (and related benefits), one question to consider is whether they became a self-fulfilling prophecy (since they gave advantage to the teams that ultimately did well).  

The true comparison will be this year when the PR happens & we see how those seeds do.  If the top ones get blown out early, then your argument really carries weight.  However, if they do well (because they have the seeding advantage), then I don't know that you can keep or throw away either system simply because they (Coaches or Computer) pick their favorites, give them some favor, and they win.

And on the boys side, I'm not sure it's as clean-cut as it sounds like it might've been here.
D1:  #2 beat #8 (#1 eliminated in QUARTERfinals)
D2:  #8 beat #3 (#1 eliminated in QUARTERfinals)
D3:  #5 beat #2 (#1 eliminated in SEMIfinals)

So I can't draw the same conclusion that the Poll got it right (despite the advantages that go with being #1, none of them advanced to the finals).

So continue to raise your arguments, but apply them in reverse after this year's playoffs and then let the true comparisons happen.  I'm not sure which will do better - I'm trying to defer judgment while we see how it plays out.