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Post by deobserver on Jan 27, 2015 17:08:50 GMT -6
I would like to bring to everyone’s attention that Holy Savior Menard High School Boys Soccer has determined that some of its players is ineligible due to grades after 1st semester. Our program has taken all the appropriate steps in self-reporting this problem to LHSAA. We deeply regret and apologize to those teams we have played this season if this has caused any problems in your rankings. Our program has a proud tradition and felt that it was necessary to inform everyone of our situation. Look forward to seeing everyone on the pitch!!
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Post by deobserver on Jan 27, 2015 17:33:49 GMT -6
5 games was forfeited.
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Post by rora on Jan 27, 2015 17:36:36 GMT -6
How does this affect power ranking?
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p_malinich
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Post by p_malinich on Jan 27, 2015 17:54:19 GMT -6
How does this affect power ranking? My guess is that those 5 wins will be turned to losses. If that's how they do it, every team that played them would lose those 5 points but averaged across all your games. I think it would cost a 20 game team about 0.25. I'm hoping that it got processed before they calculated this release of the PR.
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p_malinich
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Post by p_malinich on Jan 27, 2015 17:55:57 GMT -6
And it wlll obviously cost. Menard much more than any other team. Props to the Coach for reporting it when he discovered it.
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Post by Antimatter on Jan 27, 2015 18:35:19 GMT -6
Indeed, props to the coach. It is the kind of thing that some folks might have tried to cover up. I appreciate the integrity. And like Mr Malinich, the power rating guru said it won't cause a tectonic shift in seedings.
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Post by beauchenecoach on Jan 27, 2015 20:20:58 GMT -6
.25 is huge in D2 seeding from 2-10
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p_malinich
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Post by p_malinich on Jan 27, 2015 20:55:19 GMT -6
First, I'm just Paul (I doubt there's ever been a Mr. Malinich although I appreciate the respect).
I was on the road when I wrote my original potential impact post. Now that I'm comfy at my PC seat, I want to clarify. Just so we're clear...
If you played Menard and played 20 games, it could cost you about 0.25 - but here's what I missed - provided YOU WON over Menard...
IF you played them and LOST, that .25 is cut in half to a .13 impact (approximate).
On to the what transpired...
I talked to Coach Prince late last week and he was heartbroken that it happened because of the impact that it would have on him and on other teams. I had encouraged him not to post earlier because this board can get caught up in speculation way too much (and there's enough noise swirling around PR anyway). He patiently awaited the verdict. As soon as he heard from LHSAA, he texted me and posted the news on here. Again, I cannot say enough about what a high class individual he is.
The fuzzy was how strict LHSAA was going to be in this specific situation and they took the 100% strict call. Every game turned into a loss. A less strict approach might've allowed them to all be ties (or some other creative route). But it is what it is.
My goal is always just to help you know the related impacts as best as I can in isolating one variable in a many variable model.
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Post by beauchenecoach on Jan 27, 2015 21:19:23 GMT -6
First, I'm just Paul (I doubt there's ever been a Mr. Malinich although I appreciate the respect). I was on the road when I wrote my original potential impact post. Now that I'm comfy at my PC seat, I want to clarify. Just so we're clear... If you played Menard and played 20 games, it could cost you about 0.25 - but here's what I missed - provided YOU WON over Menard... IF you played them and LOST, that .25 is cut in half to a .13 impact (approximate). On to the what transpired... I talked to Coach Prince late last week and he was heartbroken that it happened because of the impact that it would have on him and on other teams. I had encouraged him not to post earlier because this board can get caught up in speculation way too much (and there's enough noise swirling around PR anyway). He patiently awaited the verdict. As soon as he heard from LHSAA, he texted me and posted the news on here. Again, I cannot say enough about what a high class individual he is. The fuzzy was how strict LHSAA was going to be in this specific situation and they took the 100% strict call. Every game turned into a loss. A less strict approach might've allowed them to all be ties (or some other creative route). But it is what it is. My goal is always just to help you know the related impacts as best as I can in isolating one variable in a many variable model. Prince is high quality! A great guy. With him not working at school, the AD should shoulder most of blame... Especially with the last day before holidays is the last day of grading period that the second day back is eligible date. I used to hate when our parish was like this was as its near impossible... And sometimes we had to sit a kid (that ended up eligible) for that next game cause teachers weren't fully done inputting grades just to be safe. Now our whole parish system does the last day is when we get back, like the Thursday, and it gives us a week to get it straight. But as a fellow non faculty coach, I can feel your pain (and probably anger) that someone wasn't doing their full job at the school... The AD should be the one to blame for not finding this on second day back. Paul, LHSAA will NEVER deviate from an eligibility rule. You can appeal, but you better have a darn good reason. And even then, they are always going to go with the rule as always interpreted.
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Post by deobserver on Jan 27, 2015 21:46:56 GMT -6
Thanks guys. This is an error that will not be repeated. Is been an interesting year! To say the least. We invision having 15-20 wins this season. With the forfeits and 2 cancelled tournaments we are at 9. Honestly we should still make the play offs and the boys are rearing to go no matter what seed we are at. We are not worried how this affects us but we are more concerned how it affects everyone else. Instead of a 14 win team now they have a 9 win team to factor in. For that we are truly sorry. Like I told my guys though for some odd reason everything happens for a reason. Not sure what the reason is but hopefully God will reveal it to us. As for now we are focus on St Micheals tomorrow, Northlake on Friday and Opelousas on Monday!
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Post by coachray40 on Jan 27, 2015 21:47:09 GMT -6
Exactly what five games are being forfeited? That will make a huge difference for certain teams. I assume it is the first 5 games after the break--1/6 v Pineville, 1/8 v Grace Christian, 1/12 v Glenmora, 1/13 v St Frederick, and 1/15 v Buckeye. Is this correct? These forfeits will have IMMENSE inpact on the DIII playoffs. Somebody please confirm
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Post by deobserver on Jan 27, 2015 21:51:13 GMT -6
Honestly not sure which 5 games they are going to take. As the ruling says we forfeited 5 out of 7 games played. We tied St Fred's and lost to St Louis so the wording is very interesting. The games you lost sounds about right
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Post by coachray40 on Jan 27, 2015 22:19:30 GMT -6
It certainly matters as this will have a ripple effect. It will make a difference for everyteam Menard has played, as well as every team that has played a team that Menard has played. A loss to Menard will now become a 5.75 point loss (down from 7.75) and a win from one of these forfeits will now be worth 16 points. In addition, the teams that receive these forfeit wins will give points to team they played. The biggest benefactor of these forfeits looks to be Grace Christian who will move from a 5.32 to a 6.77 power rating due to the direct and indirect points from these forfeits.
To show the ripple, my Ascension Christian team will get a full point from these forfeits as we played both Glenmora and Grace Christian--each now got a additional win so we get a half point apiece. This is a lot bigger impact than many folks may realize
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p_malinich
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Post by p_malinich on Jan 27, 2015 22:40:00 GMT -6
It certainly matters as this will have a ripple effect. It will make a difference for everyteam Menard has played, as well as every team that has played a team that Menard has played. A loss to Menard will now become a 5.75 point loss (down from 7.75) and a win from one of these forfeits will now be worth 16 points. In addition, the teams that receive these forfeit wins will give points to team they played. The biggest benefactor of these forfeits looks to be Grace Christian who will move from a 5.32 to a 6.77 power rating due to the direct and indirect points from these forfeits. To show the ripple, my Ascension Christian team will get a full point from these forfeits as we played both Glenmora and Grace Christian--each now got a additional win so we get a half point apiece. This is a lot bigger impact than many folks may realize Yes. The 5 teams that now receive a win instead of a loss would be the biggest beneficiaries (and should be by LHSAA rule). The teams that played them will pick up and extra point for that new win averaged across 20 games should be about 0.05. The .25 and .13 I referenced earlier will apply to other opponents. Thanks for highlighting those as well!
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p_malinich
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Post by p_malinich on Jan 27, 2015 22:43:06 GMT -6
Now the most interesting thing in this is that...
The computer will factor those 5 games as losses now for Menard and wins for their opponents and rate them accordingly (as per LHSAA intent). It's just math.
Under a voting system, while voters will take that into consideration, they'll know that Menard is better than their "adjusted" record and may not punish them as much in seeding. Almost like telling a jury to forget that they heard something in a court case when it's struck from the record.
Which is right??
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p_malinich
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Post by p_malinich on Jan 27, 2015 22:54:16 GMT -6
By the way, coachray40, I'd love to take a look at the spreadsheet you've developed. Takes me back to the early days of Lusher when we got our first ever playoff game and had similar projections of every game in DIII with winners picked (and changed when we got it wrong). IF you don't mind sharing it, please send it to me at SetFreeMail@yahoo.com (just want to see the work - some people like art - I like spreadsheets).
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Post by coachray40 on Jan 27, 2015 23:11:56 GMT -6
I'll send you a copy tomorrow after i get it updated with the new power ratings along with the results from the last two days. I'd really like to find out what games Menard is forfeiting as well.
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p_malinich
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Post by p_malinich on Jan 27, 2015 23:43:08 GMT -6
I'll send you a copy tomorrow after i get it updated with the new power ratings along with the results from the last two days. I'd really like to find out what games Menard is forfeiting as well. Thanks and me, too. It's been a waiting process since last week & now a matter of figuring out what will be effected. Felt like it was far enough along to inform the soccer community once the verdict was official - now just need some details...
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Post by beauchenecoach on Jan 28, 2015 0:24:14 GMT -6
In my experience and knowledge of the handbook... The kid was still eligible the first day back so the 1/6 game vs Pineville is not forfeited. He would have been inelgible the second day back from break since they ended grading period on the day before holidays... So as of 1/7, the player was inelgible.
they would forfeit the the next 5 games before it was caught... 1/8- Grace Christian (was a win) 1/12- Glenmora (was a win) 1/13- St Freds (was a Draw) 1/15- Buckeye (was a win) 1/17- Rapides (was a win)
1/19- St Louis (was a loss so no forfeit)
it it was caught and fixed before the next win... So this is not a forfeit on 1/27 vs Christian (won by Menard)
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Post by coachray40 on Jan 28, 2015 8:55:52 GMT -6
Good stuff Chad--thanks
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