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Post by pOkLE on Jan 28, 2015 20:51:35 GMT -6
Division II bracket based on 1/28 Power Rankings. Thoughts, predictions, errors? I believe Bolton will be uniquely affected by Menard forfeits and would be swapped with St. Thomas More after recalculation -- I could be wrong but don't think any other Div II teams have victories vs Menard factored into their current power ranking. Attachment Deleted |
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p_malinich
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Post by p_malinich on Jan 28, 2015 21:19:59 GMT -6
Division II bracket based on 1/28 Power Rankings. Thoughts, predictions, errors? I believe Bolton will be uniquely affected by Menard forfeits and would be swapped with St. Thomas More after recalculation -- I could be wrong but don't think any other Div II teams have victories vs Menard factored into their current power ranking. It looks like Teurlings split with them over the course of 2 tourneys. |
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Post by lhsbulldoghc on Jan 28, 2015 21:26:42 GMT -6
Lutcher has a tie vs Menard at Copa
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Post by pOkLE on Jan 28, 2015 21:28:52 GMT -6
Lutcher has a tie vs Menard at Copa Good.  At least others will be affected. I kid ... but good to know we're not the only ones. |
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warrior16
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Post by warrior16 on Jan 28, 2015 21:37:21 GMT -6
We just beat Menard tonight. As of right now, Menard has 9 wins and 2 draws, so we'd get 15 points for beating them. Should improve our power ranking slightly, but the big game is against East Jefferson on Saturday. Winner of that game will likely get the 2 seed. If it's a draw, Ben Franklin will likely get the 2 seed. Should be a great game.
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warrior16
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Post by warrior16 on Jan 28, 2015 23:21:08 GMT -6
For all you math nerds, here is a little comparison of the three teams currently separated by four hundredths of a point:
PR Rank PR Value Record CP Rank Ben Franklin 2 12.11 13-4-3 2 East Jefferson 3 12.09 16-3-4 4 St. Michael 4 12.07 17-4-5 3
Schedule Since PR Updated
Ben Franklin- @ Landry-Walker (1-9-0), vs. Country Day (2-9-2) East Jefferson- @ Belle Chasse (4-10-1), vs. St. Michael (17-4-5), vs. West Jefferson (8-6-0) St. Michael- W 6-0 vs. Menard (9-12-2), @ East Jefferson (16-3-4), @ Episcopal BR (7-9-0)
Max PR Points Earned (win against opponents w/ current win totals, which might increase slightly)
Ben Franklin- 6 + 8 = 14 East Jefferson- 9.5 + 24.5 + 13= 47 St. Michael- 15 + 23 + 12 = 50
Judging from the information above, St. Michael controls their destiny in the "race for the two seed". Ben Franklin will likely drop to fourth behind both EJ and St. Michael regardless of results, due to having to play two teams with very low PR value. I think best-case scenario for Franklin at this point would be to get the third seed, but even that seems unlikely unless some things really break their way. They might even drop to fifth if some crazy results happen.
The winner of the EJ-St. Michael game will very likely be the two seed. Should the match end up as a draw, it could very well come down to fractions of a point to determine which team earns the two seed. St. Michael has draws against Acadiana, St. Louis, and Northlake to bolster its PR along with wins over Bolton, and Lutcher (x2). EJ and St. Michael both have wins over Lutcher and Bolton and draws against Vandebilt and Northlake, so the matchup is very even in my opinion. Even the scores both teams had against Northlake, Bolton, and Vandebilt are exactly the same. |
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Post by rora on Jan 29, 2015 6:41:55 GMT -6
As Warrior points out, this will change with the impending games. However, even those schools who do not change positions based on this week may still move based on schools ahead of them in PR not playing the minimum 15 matches. This should only affect the positioning of the bottom portion of the rankings; however, it ultimately affects more teams in terms of which opponents they will face.
For example, in the brackets based on the current PR, we would face Salmen (again) in the first round. However, Salmen will not play the requisite 15 games to my knowledge. This will knock them down in the seeding. A higher seeded team will now have to face an arguably better opponent than seeding indicates.
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Post by TCHS Gaffer on Jan 29, 2015 10:21:43 GMT -6
Lutcher has a tie vs Menard at Copa Good. At least others will be affected. I kid . but good to know we're not the only ones. We lost 1, won 1...not sure how that's going to affect us... |
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Post by goakes on Jan 29, 2015 14:19:53 GMT -6
In looking at the Handbook don't the top 8 seeds(PR)get byes? If so, that will change the bracket. Trying to clarify this for the girls side as this discussion is not being held on that board.
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Post by pOkLE on Jan 29, 2015 14:23:51 GMT -6
In looking at the Handbook don't the top 8 seeds(PR)get byes? If so, that will change the bracket. Trying to clarify this for the girls side as this discussion is not being held on that board. No, this year 32 teams make playoffs. |
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warrior16
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Post by warrior16 on Feb 1, 2015 14:43:13 GMT -6
Franklin 12.11 x 20 = 242.2 + 6 + 7.5 = 255.7/22 = 11.62 EJ 12.09 x 23 = 278.07 + 9.5 + 10.25 + 13 = 310.82/26 = 11.95 St. Michael 12.07 x 25 = 301.75 + 15 + 24 + 13 = 353.75/28 = 12.63 ED White 11.92 x 23 = 274.16 + 15.5 + 7 + 9.5 = 306.16/26 = 11.77 Vandebilt 11.69 x 25 = 292.25 + 11 + 15.5 + 8.25 = 327/28 = 11.68 Bolton 11.64 x 23 = 267.72 + 16.75 + 19 = 303.47/25 = 12.13 STM 11.45 x 20 = 229 + 13.5 + 10.5 = 253/22 = 11.5 Neville 11.22 x 27 = 302.94 + 10 +11 + 18.5 = 342.44/30 = 11.41
Keep in mind that these calculations assume the following results will happen, and if they don't these numbers could change drastically and affect the seeding: East Jefferson beats West Jefferson, St. Michael beats Episcopal, Jesuit beats Vandebilt, and Bolton beats Leesville. Also keep in mind that that these numbers are based only on things these teams can control this week (i.e. their games), and do not factor in outside variables, such as how many games their opponents have won this week, which will also affect their PR. I didn't even bother calculating Beau Chene's since that is a given.
Again, this is just an approximation of how the final seedings might look on Wednesday, and it doesn't factor in all of the variables the actual PR formula does, so don't panic if your team is lower than you would like. If your team has a cushion of about 0.2 points between another team, I would safely say that team cannot pass you. Anything less than that, and they might.
1) Beau Chene 2) St. Michael 3) Bolton 4) East Jefferson 5) ED White 6) Vandebilt 7) Ben Franklin 8) St. Thomas More 9) Neville
While I don't think the seeding above will end up being the final seeding exactly, I'd be willing to bet money on these projections:
Beau Chene- will be top seed St. Michael- will be 2 seed Bolton- will be a 3-5 seed East Jefferson- will be a 3-5 seed ED White- will be a 4-7 seed Vandebilt- will be a 5-8 seed Franklin- will be a 5-8 seed STM- will be a 6-9 seed Neville will be a 8-9 seed
The most surprising thing is how far playing two very low PR teams will cause Franklin's PR to drop and how much two big results will cause Bolton's PR to soar (if they beat Leesville, and that's a big if). Lots of crazy things can still happen in the rankings.
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Post by beauchenecoach on Feb 1, 2015 17:12:03 GMT -6
Michael,
Are u counting previous opponents points? Some get way more than others! It seems like STM would be higher. This is good stuff though. Maybe asking a lot, but could you see with previous opponents up to now? And also a few other game options like of leesville beats Bolton or they draw? Or if Vandy beats Jesuit or draw? Vandy always seems to get a draw vs Jesuit everyfew years. This is crazy that everyone's widely picked 2 who even has 4 top seed votes in last poll will possibly be 7! Maybe even 8??! That's nuts!
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warrior16
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Post by warrior16 on Feb 1, 2015 17:29:08 GMT -6
Michael, Are u counting previous opponents points? Some get way more than others! It seems like STM would be higher. This is good stuff though. Maybe asking a lot, but could you see with previous opponents up to now? And also a few other game options like of leesville beats Bolton or they draw? Or if Vandy beats Jesuit or draw? Vandy always seems to get a draw vs Jesuit everyfew years. This is crazy that everyone's widely picked 2 who even has 4 top seed votes in last poll will possibly be 7! Maybe even 8??! That's nuts! I'll work on it. It will take a while to do for each team, and I won't do it for Beau Chene since we already know you will be the top seed.
What I did above only takes into account direct results from this week, so the margin of error could potentially vary wildly for some teams, especially those who play in tougher districts.
I'll do Franklin and Bolton first, since those seem to be the anomalies here.
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Post by beauchenecoach on Feb 1, 2015 18:06:26 GMT -6
Use the search function as it lets you see each teams opponent and directly links to their pages too. Make sir easier. Use that spreadsheet posted in lhssca members area on this board also, it works great
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warrior16
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Post by warrior16 on Feb 1, 2015 19:05:26 GMT -6
Ben Franklin
Schedule Completed
Points Before Adjustment: 255.7/22 = 11.62
Schedule
Brother Martin L 0-1 (2 wins this week) +1 pt
Newman D 1-1 (1 wins this week) + 0.75 pts
Jesuit L 0-1 (2 wins this week, vs. Vandy) + 1pt, possibly extra 0.5 pts
Bolton W 1-0 (1 tie, vs. Leesville) + 0.5 pts, possibly extra 1 pt
Ponchatoula W 2-1 (0 wins this week)
Belle Chasse W 7-2 (0 wins, vs. Thomas Jefferson) possibly 1 extra pt
De La Salle W 9-0 (0 wins this week, vs. Riverdale) possibly 1 extra pt
Lusher Charter W 3-0 (1 tie, vs. Runnels) + 0.5 pts, possibly extra 1 pt Helen Cox L 2-3 (0 wins, vs. Higgins) possibly extra 0.5 pts
Grace King L 0-2 (1 win, vs. Covington) +0.5 pts, possibly extra 0.5 pts
Lakeshore D 2-2 (1 win) + 0.75 pts
Vandebilt Catholic W 4-1 (1 win, vs. Jesuit) + 1pt, possibly extra 1pt
East Jefferson W 2-0 (1 win, vs. West Jeff) + 1pt, possibly extra 1 pt
Riverdale W 2-1 (0 wins this week, vs. De La Salle) possibly 1 pt
Landry-Walker W 7-0 (0 wins this week)
De La Salle W 9-0 (0 wins this week, vs. Riverdale) possibly 1 extra pt
White, E.D. D 0-0 (2 wins this week) + 1.5 pts
Belle Chasse W 5-2 (0 wins, vs. Thomas Jefferson) possibly 1 extra pt
East Jefferson W 4-0 (1 win, vs. West Jeff) + 1pt, possibly extra 1 pt
Riverdale W 3-0 (0 wins this week, vs. De La Salle) possibly 1 pt
Landry-Walker W 5-1 (0 wins this week)
Country Day W 7-1 (1 win, vs. Catholic NI) +1 pt, possibly 1 extra pt
Opponents Wins Confirmed: 10.5 ---> 255.7 + 10.5 = 266.2/22 = 12.1
If Every Possible Result Falls Their Way: 266.2 + 13 = 275.2/22 = 12.51
I'll average the two sums to get a reasonable estimate: 12.3 should be around Franklin's final PR
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warrior16
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Post by warrior16 on Feb 1, 2015 19:12:03 GMT -6
Took a LONG time to do, but I'll try and at least do Bolton's tonight.
Beau Chene and St. Michael are safe as the one and two seeds, but judging by how different my initial projections were from what it turns out to actually be once you factor in all of your opponents' results from that week, everyone else's seed is still very much in the air. |
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Post by copakid14 on Feb 1, 2015 21:40:06 GMT -6
In looking at the Handbook don't the top 8 seeds(PR)get byes? If so, that will change the bracket. Trying to clarify this for the girls side as this discussion is not being held on that board. No, this year 32 teams make playoffs. Looks like the top 8 for d2 still get byes even though 32 teams make the playoffs. 9-32 play round 1? |
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Post by beauchenecoach on Feb 1, 2015 21:48:03 GMT -6
No. 32 team bracket, was clarified already
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p_malinich
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Post by p_malinich on Feb 1, 2015 22:57:10 GMT -6
No, this year 32 teams make playoffs. Looks like the top 8 for d2 still get byes even though 32 teams make the playoffs. 9-32 play round 1? They updated the Wildcard #'s in 18.5.2 so that # of districts plus wildcards = 32 in each of the 3 districts. However, they erred in not removing the remaining byes for D2 (which would've generated 40 teams in playoffs). Referenced to a degree in 18.6.2 as well. 18.5.1 and 18.6.1 addresses that the 32 seeds will be seeded top to bottom & placed in bracket. 18.6.3 deals with teams in top 32 playing < 15 games and dropping to bottom of the 32. |
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Post by beauchenecoach on Feb 3, 2015 0:30:39 GMT -6
My early numbers indicate the following as 1-9
1- Beau Chene
2- St Michael
3- Bolton
4- Vandebilt (if Lusher beats Runnels)
5- EJ
6- ED White
7-Ben Franklin (even with Lusher beating Runnels, still short of EDW by slimmest of margins)
8- St Thomas More
9- Neville
If anyone wants to send me their power rating by using the spreadsheet on the coaches members board then please do so and I can tell you where you are. Would love for someone to do Benton, Lakeshore, leesville, morgan city, Lutcher, tioga, Teurlings, S. Terrebonne so we could get the top 16 figured out.
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At least others will be affected. I kid ... but good to know we're not the only ones.
