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Post by pOkLE on Jan 20, 2015 14:58:42 GMT -6
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Post by mswatd on Jan 20, 2015 15:20:06 GMT -6
HUGE difference from last ranking with a handful of games played. Some teams jumped 3-4 points! Guess my "grasp" on this system was merely a touch!
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warrior16
Data Expert
Michael Stein - Volunteer Assitant
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Post by warrior16 on Jan 20, 2015 15:28:07 GMT -6
HUGE difference from last ranking with a handful of games played. Some teams jumped 3-4 points! Guess my "grasp" on this system was merely a touch! Yeah. Since power rankings are ultimately an average, you'll generally see a little less movement at this point in the season for teams that have maxed out their schedules than those who do not, but every team has the potential to move up or down these last two weeks. I think Acadiana pretty much has the top seed locked up at this point in D-I and likely Beau Chene in D-II as well, but other than those two teams there is lots to be decided! We won't play any games until the next rankings come out, so I'm interested to see how much St. Michael moves up or down even in idleness, which is an excellent indicator of strength of schedule.
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Post by rlb2024 on Jan 20, 2015 15:49:16 GMT -6
I see there's a new top seed in Division I . . .
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Post by gunners11 on Jan 20, 2015 17:59:12 GMT -6
How did St. Louis jump to #1 in D-III?
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p_malinich
Data Expert
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Post by p_malinich on Jan 20, 2015 18:20:49 GMT -6
I'm hoping to get some time later tonight to show what happened in DI and DIII that caused a new #1 to rise to position. I think walking us through those 2 will help see some of the variables behind the scenes.
If anyone else plans to do that, please let me know & I'll pass. But I think it should take about 20 minutes each to do a simple head-to-head comparison.
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p_malinich
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Post by p_malinich on Jan 20, 2015 21:45:54 GMT -6
In summary, both of those changes to the #1 PR team are correct. I will walk you thru the details in the next few posts.
At this point in the season, the PR changes based on: 1) the cumulative impact of your former opponents (and how they've done since the last PR), and 2) what new results have you recorded and against which opponents
The impact of those 2 items are what drives the changes (relative to the other teams around you in the PR standings).
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p_malinich
Data Expert
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Post by p_malinich on Jan 20, 2015 21:59:59 GMT -6
Division I
At time of last PR, Acadiana was 14-1-2 with a 14.15 PR (earning them the top spot). St. Paul's was 9-0-1 with a 12.83 PR (which had them in 3rd place).
Had neither of these teams played any games during the last week, Acadiana's PR would've risen by 1.1 points based on new wins of its previous opponents to give them a 15.24 PR. St. Paul's would've also risen slightly more (by 1.4 points) to raise them to 14.28. So that would've closed the gap same, but not entirely.
Where the swing kicks in is that Acadiana had 1 game (a win over Carencro) since the last PR release. They earned 11.5 points for that game (5 for win + 6.5 opponent wins), but since it's below the 15.24 PR, it brings their average DOWN to 15.03.
In contrast, St. Paul's had 4 new games reported (2 that should've been reported at time of last PR since games on 1/5 and 1/8 - possibly not their issue - could be their opponent I think). Nonetheless, they get credit for all 4 wins since the last PR. And ALL 4 were ABOVE their adjusted PR of 14.28. They beat Northlake (19 points), Hammond (15.5 points), Mandeville (20 points), and Northshore (14.5 points, just slightly above adjusted PR). Those are huge and brought their PR up to 15.13 earning them the current #1 spot in PR.
I hope that helps. Keep in mind that everything your former opponents do going forward will continue to affect you. The actual difference between St. Paul's and Acadiana at this point is 0.0903. Still anybody's game.
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p_malinich
Data Expert
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Post by p_malinich on Jan 20, 2015 22:14:54 GMT -6
Division III
We have a similar situation with DIII. At time of last PR, Northlake was 9-0-6 with a 12.29 PR (earning them the top spot). St. Louis was 8-3-4 with a 11.30 PR (2nd place).
Had neither of these teams played any games during the last week, Northlake's PR would've risen by 1.1 points based on new wins of its previous opponents to give them a 13.38 PR PR. St. Louis would've also risen slightly less (by 1.0 points) to raise them to 12.26. So that would've increased the gap for Northlake ever so slightly.
But the swap between the top 2 is in that they each had 3 games since the last PR release. * St. Louis had 3 wins with 2 of them being very big. They beat Sulphur (21 points), Abbeville (10 points), and Menard (19.5 points). On the strength of those opponents, St. Louis's PR rose to 13.02. * Northlake had 2 wins, but against lesser opponents, as well as a loss to St. Paul's that should've been reporteed in the prior cycle. They lost to St. Paul's (6.75 points), and beat St. Thomas Aquinas (9 points) and Pope John Paul (11 points). Those 3 results brought their PR down to 12.63 (and dropping from #1 to #2 in PR).
Everything your former opponents do going forward will continue to affect you; pay attention. The actual difference between St. Louis and Northlake at this point is 0.1944. It's still up for grabs!
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Post by rogerp3 on Jan 21, 2015 16:45:41 GMT -6
How did Catholic of NI jump undefeated ESA who beat them head to head?
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Post by 0coachchris0 on Jan 22, 2015 10:00:21 GMT -6
Head-to-head has no greater weight than any other win. It's just an algorithm (that's been discussed in great detail across several threads). Peruse those other threads (or even this one) to gain a full understanding of the ratings/rankings.
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Post by goat on Jan 22, 2015 13:08:55 GMT -6
I think the top 5 in D1 are correct. I might move Jesuit up to the 3rd position but all in all the top 5 teams in D1 are the ones listed in the power ranking. St Pauls should be in the number 1 position and I think Acadiana should be number 2.
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Post by stinkycity on Jan 24, 2015 13:58:49 GMT -6
PJP and Lusher tied at the half.
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p_malinich
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Post by p_malinich on Jan 24, 2015 14:00:51 GMT -6
PJP and Lusher tied at the half. Goals by the top scorers on each team - Blake Dalferes for Pope and Alex Fuselier for Lusher.
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Post by stinkycity on Jan 24, 2015 14:40:56 GMT -6
Final 1-2 Lusher
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p_malinich
Data Expert
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Post by p_malinich on Jan 26, 2015 21:21:52 GMT -6
Coaches,
Get your games reported TONIGHT to LHSAA. They've been publishing Tuesday a.m. and it would be great to have as up-to-date PR list as possible.
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nolapelota
All-District
No longer "booming,,,"
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Post by nolapelota on Jan 27, 2015 10:38:22 GMT -6
What is sad is that in this line we are already seeing the inevitable result of a computer program ranking ... smart people seeing how to game the system to get a higher seed ... with the focus on a first round home game.
I wonder if Lusher canceling the game with NOMMA last night was driven by computer considerations, not referees? Both teams were there, Lusher's field is lighted, yet because the refs were an hour late the game was cancled when it could have been played. Whatever, ... but in the end, a team that showed up and was ready to play was denied a game.
This is just the beginning, as it was in basketball. With the ill-considered drop in the number of required district games, it will be harder and harder for middle-of-pack good teams to fill a schedule unless they are willing to play the top teams in other divisions.
And the mid-pack team's scheduling problems are just going to be made worse by going to 24 teams in playoffs... this will force the weaker teams that would normally be ranked 18-26 or so, but who field an organized program, to carfully pharse their schedules. In my opinion, all the changes lately have been for the benefit of a few teams at the top. They are all to the detriment of the middle-of-the-pack programs.
The only reasonable solutions are to (1) drop the computer rankings and go with coach seed - which is not going to happen; (2) force large districts with a range of teams and home/home so that schedules are somewhat equalized - not going to happen.
Just be prepared for the basketball desease becaue it is already here like Ebola. It has just not been fully diagnosed yet.
PS: The regional advantage created by having a large number of local medium/fair teams that play a lot of local medium/bad teams is on full display. In D-III, how Abbeville, Op. Catholic and Notre Dame are ranked ahead of Pope John Paul and St. Thomas Aquinas is not a mystery...it is simple math.
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Post by realism on Jan 27, 2015 12:19:20 GMT -6
What is the exact equation to calculate power rankings again?
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Post by upper90 on Jan 27, 2015 12:28:46 GMT -6
I wonder if Lusher canceling the game with NOMMA last night was driven by computer considerations, not referees? Both teams were there, Lusher's field is lighted, yet because the refs were an hour late the game was cancled when it could have been played. Whatever, ... but in the end, a team that showed up and was ready to play was denied a game. What? Why would Lusher make a team show up and then cancel the game once they got there? Technically, two teams showed up ready to play and were denied games. You don't know what circumstances there could have been surrounding why the game was not officially played. Maybe there was another game scheduled for Lusher's field. Maybe there were other teams practices scheduled. I'm not sure what the circumstance was, but I can assure you that Lusher isn't cheating the system by cancelling a game because of referees "not showing up." You've been quite harsh on Lusher throughout the year, and I'm not really sure what for. Lusher has had issues with referees for the entire season. I've counted 6 times so far (middle and high school) where the referee(s) was either a no show or showed up at least an hour late. On one occasion, two referees showed up for a district game late, and neither of which were assigned to our game.
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Post by chelsea007 on Jan 27, 2015 12:37:38 GMT -6
I am not a fan of four divisions and 24 teams in the playoffs. I HATE the concept of a bye. More importantly, I feel it will kill many mid-table programs in the state. I see it passing, which will help quite a few schools, just not mine and many others. Such is life. Time to do just what just about everyone else will do and attept to gerrymander our schedule. It is pretty sad because for us it means...no more Lakeshore, no more Pope John Paul II, and no more Salmen. Two of these coaches will probably see things the same as me for the most part, that the risk far outweighs the reward. I feel that the system is broken. We got more points for beating a wimless team than for playing and losing to Lakeshore. Something is wrong with that imo. Oh well, on to plan b, or c, or whatever it is. Good luck in the playoffs peeps.
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