New Playoff System Discussed at LHSAA?

[flat3]

The following is a quote from laprepsoccer.net of "www.laprepsoccer.net.com," laprepsoccer's counterpart in football, baseball, softball, and basketball.

I would like to know if there's any truth in it. If you know anything about it, please let us know.

I was concerned enough to send an e-mail to LHSAA, though I don't really expect any response from them.

***Quote***
I hear the non football sports have voted to use a new playoff system this year. it's the same system they use for volleyball.
***Quote***
This new syatem has been proposed by the coaches and it's to be voted on in January. Basketball will use it this school year if approved by the principals. Ask the principal at your school about it. Ask him/her if they will vote for it.

The above quote is not accurate since basketball playoffs will follow the traditional pairings (as in soccer) at least for this year. They published the brackets so that they can't change any more. Starting 2008-2009 season, LHSAA may adopt the new system, however.

I was concerned about this possible change, since I don't like the "Volleyball Formula" much. LHSAA, however, started using the formula this year to seed volleyball teams.

According to LHSAA Bylaw (on volleyball),
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24.6.4.3 The power rating for each school shall be determined as follows:
Result of Contest Add
Win (5 points) Opponents Wins (100%)
Loss (0 points) Opponents Wins (33%)
***
This formula has a major flaw, if applied for soccer, in which teams play different # of games per season.

Using the Volleyball formula, if you win against a team with the season record of 12-12, you get 17 points. If you win against a team with the season record of 3-3, you only get 8 points. Do you see any difference between these two wins? I don't. If I were a coach, I would avoid playing a team who played only few games, since it hurts your ratings. If you are in a district which includes non-active programs (which play only district games), you will never be ranked high. This year, St. Martin's will be the case. No other teams in their district (Country Day, Ridgewood, Lutheran, Ecole Classique, and Believer's Life) played any games yet. Using the Volleyball formula, St. Martin's will never be ranked Top 3. Other schools in the same plight include Grace King, Vandebilt, and Opelousas Catholic. Under this system with current districts, I don't think it's possible for Vandy or OCS to be ranked #1.

***A paragraph edited out here***

I hope the whole thing is just a rumor, but I have been hearing that LHSAA wanted to incorporate Power Ratings in non-football sports (at least in baseball) for some time.

[flat3]

To my surprise, I received a response from LHSAA. It appears that they are trying to incorporate Power Ratings to non-football sports starting 2008-9. They say that the volleyball formula will be tweaked for other sports deemed as appropriate by coaches.
I told them that I will do some simulation on the rankings of 2006-7 soccer based on the results I have. It took me some time to calculate them, but I found the result (covering all reported scores) very interesting. Here are TWO rankings for all divisions, one by my formula, and the other by the Volleyball formula.

I was quite surprised to see how well the volleyball formula ranks soccer teams. Since this formula punishes schools who play against other schools which play few games, some schools in North Louisiana and non-active districts are ranked lower than my ratings. Examples include St. Fred (7 vs 17), Parkway (10 vs 20), Opelousas Catholic (21 vs 31), Tara (23 vs 49!), Lee (30 vs 45), Menard (37 vs 53), Grace King (41 vs 64), and East St. John (44 vs 58).
On the other hand, the volleyball formula rewards schools in more active districts. Those schools who are ranked higher in volleyball rankings are Catholic (15 vs 7), Dutchtown (29 vs 18), St. Amant (32 vs 21), Mandeville (39 vs 22), Comeaux (49 vs 26), Sulphur (50 vs 35), Northshore, Slidell, and Covington.
Though I am the author of this "flat3 rankings," I kind of like the volleyball ranking better. What do you think?

2006-7 Power Ratings based on Two Different Formulae

-flat3's----Volleball
1* 17.99 1* 17.00 Jesuit (1) 22 0 0
2* 15.80 6* 13.46 Teurlings (3) 23 1 2
3* 15.67 3* 14.50 St. Louis (3) 12 2 2
4* 15.17 2* 14.72 Fontainebleau (1) 19 2 1
5* 15.07 4* 14.41 Carencro (1) 15 2 3
6* 14.68 8* 12.60 Caddo (1) 22 3 1
7* 14.49 17 11.10 St. Frederick (3) 11 2 0
8* 14.39 5* 13.70 Brother Martin (1) 13 3 8
9* 14.36 16 11.39 St. Th. More (2) 17 3 3
10 13.96 20 10.72 Parkway (2) 18 5 0
11 13.89 11 12.36 Shreve (1) 18 5 2
12 13.83 15 11.43 C. E. Byrd (1) 15 5 0
13 13.79 9* 12.51 Lafayette (1) 15 6 3
14 13.71 10 12.48 Rummel (1) 13 4 1
15 13.70 7* 13.37 Catholic (1) 15 3 5
16 13.48 12 12.16 Newman (3) 13 4 5
17 13.47 14 11.94 Ruston (1) 12 5 1
18 13.39 13 12.06 Acadiana (1) 14 5 3
19 13.36 25 10.08 C Lafourches(1) 16 5 1
20 13.29 27 9.85 E. Ascension (2) 12 5 0
21 13.00 31 9.18 Opelousas Cath. (3) 11 4 1
22 13.00 19 10.88 St. Paul's (1) 14 9 0
23 12.74 49 8.17 Tara (2) 13 4 0
24 12.64 28 9.60 DeRidder (2) 20 5 3
25 12.62 24 10.21 Episcopal (3) 13 3 5
26 12.52 30 9.51 St. Thomas Aquinas (3) 11 4 1
27 12.41 23 10.32 Woodlawn (1) 15 6 2
28 12.35 29 9.56 Vandebilt Cath. (2) 12 8 2
29 12.27 18 11.00 Dutchtown (1) 11 8 5
30 11.96 45 8.27 Lee (2) 13 4 2
31 11.89 39 8.73 Ouachita (1) 7 3 0
32 11.85 21 10.41 St. Amant (1) 12 7 4
33 11.70 33 8.95 University (3) 12 5 8
34 11.55 38 8.73 Terrebonne (1) 13 6 3
35 11.28 32 9.05 Alexandria (2) 13 6 2
36 11.23 42 8.62 Pineville (2) 9 7 2
37 11.19 53 7.81 Menard (3) 16 5 3
38 11.17 47 8.21 Neville (2) 16 10 4
39 11.17 22 10.33 Mandeville (1) 12 9 4
40 11.12 34 8.86 Ponchatoula (1) 13 9 0
41 11.08 64 6.87 Grace King (1) 5 3 2
42 10.97 41 8.64 St. Michael (2) 9 6 3
43 10.95 35 8.86 Loyola (2) 8 6 1
44 10.89 58 7.28 East St. John (1) 15 6 1
45 10.85 35 8.82 S. Terrebonne (1) 6 4 0
46 10.85 46 8.25 Airline (1) 13 11 1
47 10.68 50 8.16 St. Martin's (3) 14 10 1
48 10.56 43 8.40 Ben Franklin (2) 8 9 2
49 10.53 26 9.88 Comeaux (1) 12 10 1
50 10.38 35 8.86 Sulphur (1) 11 11 3
51 10.27 48 8.20 Hahnville (1) 12 10 1
52 10.13 61 7.07 Opelousas (2) 10 6 1
53 10.10 51 8.11 E. D. White (3) 9 8 0
54 10.07 39 8.69 Northshore (1) 10 11 1
55 10.00 68 6.50 Bonnabel (1) 1 1 0
56 9.76 69 6.50 Westminster (3) 8 7 0
57 9.67 52 8.06 NISH (1) 10 11 2
58 9.58 54 7.66 Baton Rouge (1) 8 14 1
59 9.19 66 6.83 Destrehan (1) 9 8 3
60 8.93 44 8.34 Slidell (1) 7 9 0
61 8.70 74 5.83 Beau Chene (2) 9 11 1
62 8.69 55 7.52 Covington (1) 8 11 1
63 8.64 71 6.17 West Jefferson (1) 4 7 2
64 8.46 67 6.67 Parkview (3) 4 8 2
65 8.45 63 6.89 Catholic NI (3) 6 6 0
66 8.19 73 6.01 Haughton (2) 6 7 0
67 8.18 81 5.44 Christian Life (3) 5 9 1
68 8.17 70 6.18 West Monroe (1) 4 9 4
69 7.99 56 7.48 Hammond (1) 6 12 0
70 7.97 82 5.40 S. Lafourche (1) 6 7 0
71 7.97 76 5.63 East Jefferson (2) 3 4 2
72 7.94 65 6.85 West Feliciana (3) 4 11 1
73 7.82 62 6.97 Barbe (1) 4 13 4
74 7.62 83 5.37 Thibodaux (1) 3 8 0
75 7.50 94 4.77 Salmen (2) 2 2 1
76 7.48 72 6.06 Bossier (2) 6 12 1
77 7.38 57 7.38 St. Charles (3) 2 8 2
78 7.30 87 5.21 Pope John Paul (3) 2 4 1
79 7.15 90 5.02 H. L. Bourgeois (1) 4 12 0
80 7.14 75 5.70 Bolton (3) 1 7 0
81 7.06 80 5.47 Westgate (1) 3 12 0
82 7.02 60 7.19 Leesville (2) 2 9 1
83 6.91 59 7.26 Holy Cross (1) 2 16 2
84 6.47 77 5.59 Natch. Cen (1) 3 10 0
85 6.43 107 4.04 Ouachita Ch. (3) 2 5 1
86 6.35 95 4.69 Rapides (3) 2 4 0
87 6.32 85 5.33 Episcopal, Acadiana (3) 2 15 1
88 6.22 116 3.53 Chalmette (2) 5 9 0
89 6.05 86 5.23 McKinley (2) 2 11 1
90 5.94 96 4.56 Belle Chasse (2) 1 2 0
91 5.89 88 5.19 Calvary (3) 3 10 0
92 5.81 103 4.25 Broadmoor (2) 1 5 0
93 5.78 100 4.39 Runnels (3) 2 4 0
94 5.47 91 5.01 Central (1) 3 17 1
95 5.39 113 3.74 Redemptorist (3) 4 9 0
96 5.26 78 5.58 Shaw (1) 1 12 1
97 5.01 98 4.48 Carroll (2) 2 7 0
98 4.97 79 5.58 Morgan City (2) 1 11 0
99 4.66 109 4.00 Grace Christian (3) 0 5 0
100 4.59 89 5.17 Buckeye (3) 0 3 0
101 4.59 99 4.44 Sam Houston (2) 2 14 0
102 4.43 84 5.37 Huntington (1) 1 9 0
103 4.31 106 4.06 Catholic PC (3) 2 11 0
104 4.30 102 4.29 Zachary (2) 1 12 0
105 4.29 104 4.25 Independence (3) 0 6 0
106 4.08 97 4.49 Southwood (1) 1 14 0
107 3.91 108 4.02 Notre Dame (3) 0 13 1
108 3.76 110 3.94 Ellender (1) 0 9 0
109 3.73 92 4.98 Tioga (2) 0 7 0
110 3.62 101 4.31 Northside (2) 0 8 0
111 3.55 93 4.94 Ridgewood (3) 0 3 0
112 3.34 119 3.12 Northlake Ch. (3) 0 7 0
113 3.33 105 4.15 Abbeville (2) 0 8 1
114 3.30 112 3.92 Country Day (3) 0 4 0
115 3.24 120 3.00 Riverdale (2) 0 2 0
116 3.09 122 2.33 Pearl River (3) 0 2 0
117 3.04 118 3.13 Northwood (2) 0 15 0
118 3.00 126 1.00 Higgins (1) 0 1 0
119 2.64 114 3.63 Ehret (1) 0 8 0
120 2.55 111 3.92 Riverside (3) 0 2 0
121 2.39 115 3.63 Reserve Ch. (3) 0 4 0
122 2.28 124 2.11 DeLaSalle (2) 0 6 0
123 1.98 117 3.20 Peabody (2) 0 9 0
124 1.97 121 2.44 Belaire (2) 0 6 0
125 1.66 123 2.13 Wossman (3) 0 4 0
126 1.45 127 1.00 Lutheran (3) 0 2 0
127 1.01 125 2.00 Houma Ch. (3) 0 2 0
128 0.31 128 1.00 Red River (3) 0 1 0