Playoff Bracket Food for Thought

[Tigertail]

How about this as a proposal for seeding for playoff brackets? Not too involved for LHSAA, rewards teams for performance in and out of district. Check this:

Criteria for seeding:

1) Take all District 1st seeds, rank them 1-8 (using 06-07 Div-1 as my example) based on District winning %. If ties exist, use Div-1 winning % to break ties, if still tied, coin flip.

2) Do same for 2nd and 3rd seeds from each district.

3) For WC, take and seed highest 4th and 5th place teams by District winning %, then use same tiebreakers.

4) Once teams are seeded 1-32, plug them into a standard bracket. (Here's how I think Div-1 would have laid out this season below. I'm not 100% on Div-1 winning %, but should be close.)

1 Mt. Carmel (8-1)
32 Hammond (5-5)

16 West Monroe (2-2)
17 Comeaux (3-3)

9 Fontainebleau (5-2)
24 Ouachita (2-3)

8 Baton Rouge (4-1)
25 St. Joseph (4-4)

5 Mandeville (5-1)
28 Natch. Central (1-4)

12 Caddo (1-2)
21 Chapelle (8-3)

13 Central Lafourche (7-2)
20 South Terrebonne (7-3)

4 Ruston (2-1)
29 Ponchatoula (4-4)

3 Byrd (1-1)
30 H.L. Bourgeois (7-5)

14 Lafayette (3-2)
19 Airline (1-3)

11 Dutchtown (4-2)
22 Northshore (5-3)

6 Hahnville (6-1)
27 South Lafourche (7-4)

7 Barbe (3-1)
26 Acadiana (3-4)

10 Destrehan (6-2)
23 West Jefferson (6-3)

15 Dominican (8-2)
18 St. Amant (4-3)

2 Terrebonne (7-1)
31 New Iberia (3-5)


**Remember, this is based on percentages and numbers that are relative...not emotional influences.

I know the bracket is littered with a few Bi-District matches pitting district foes together...but I know volleyball allows this to occur. Of course, LHSAA could do what they wanted to address this.

Notice, this ensures all district champions get 4th or 5th place teams in the first round, and matchups, of course, get more intense as teams progress.

Any feedback...my brain hurts?!?!?!?!

[blueandwhite12]

Hmmm....Mathematically, your plan is well thought-out. However, I don't know if even such a thorough computation could rectify the inherent inequalities of the playoff system. Maybe I'm just not thinking this through enough??? My concern is threefold:

1) If you go by the win-loss percentage in district, you do not acknowledge the inequalities of the districts themselves. Because some regional club programs are stronger, the schools in these districts will face much stiffer competition than those with less-developed programs. For example, next year's DI, d5, will contain Fountainebleu, Mandeville, and St. Scholastica. It would be much more difficult for one of these teams to maintain a 100% win record than a team in an easier district, regardless of how the #1 in each district matched against each other.

2) If you factor in outside-district matches, you add another level of inequality to the rankings. Out of sheer practicality, teams cannot all play the same number and quality of nondistrict opponents. For example, just looking at THIS YEAR'S Division II, many consistent "powerhouses" (St. Scholastica, St. Thomas, Ben Franklin, Vandebilt, etc.) are located more in the South, so highly-competitive teams from the North (such as this year's state finalist Neville) would have less opportunity to play teams seeded high. Furthermore, a team could play two teams of the same quality, and easily beat one but struggle to score on the other, just depending on how the playing styles mesh/clash.

3) Records can be misleading. Sometimes teams take awhile to gel, and other times excellent teams play extremely well but lose by 1 goal in multiple games. Plus, with schools moving in and out of divisions, time must pass before determining how competitive a new addition is.

I don't know if my concern stems from my misunderstanding of the proposition, or from an unfortunate but incorrectable inequality of playoff brackets. As much as I would love to see evenly-matched brackets, I don't know that there is a way to create truly "fair" brackets, and I would hate for teams to experience "unfairness" that is unnatural, that is a result of inaccurate seeding rather than bad luck. As a player, my team often faced formidable opponents early in the playoffs; my freshman year, we were ranked quite high in the seedings (I think 3rd) and wound up playing (and beating!) the defending-state champions in the quarterfinals. Some years you get lucky, and some you don't. Personally, I think you just have to fight through it, but maybe one day there will be a more fair method.

[blueandwhite12]

Nope, I played for SSA...so actually, I probably know you lol.

[Tigertail]

You have to keep in mind that this is just an idea I had.

When I put all this together last night, I looked at teams that fell to what seemed to me at the time unbelievable seedings.

Example, look at Byrd and Laffayette. Byrd gets the 3 seed b/c they went undefeated in district. Say they had the 3rd best Div-1 win %. So they get the 3rd seed. Laffayette, b/c they came in second in district got seeded 14th. In theory, most LAHS girl's soccer fans in the know would have put Laffy higher, but it's based on records and percentages.

Laffy would probably have beaten Byrd in the second round, so even though the seeding seems unreal, if a team earns a high seed and is to be reckoned with, they will have to beat the best teams along the way.

Remember also, the fuss was with the change in the Div-1 brackets this season that placed 3 teams from a single district within a quarter of the bracket as seen with districts 4, 7, and 8. Upon closer inspection the same ended up happening b/c of wildcards with districts 1 and 3 as well. You had 1st and 2nd seeded teams from the same district playing in the second round...who came up with that?

If you look up at the "seeded" bracket, the teams are pretty well spread among districts.

They use a similar system like this with volleyball. A couple of years ago a team from a weak district went like 22-4 in the regular season, but they played all weak teams. So in the playoffs they were seeded higher than other quality teams. What was the result, they got taken out in the 1st or 2nd round by a better team. So even though the seeding system seemingly helped them, they got their due when the competition was stepped up.

Also keep in mind that Div-1 winning % is only a tiebreaker, not a necessarily a frequent determining factor. Teams do not pick their districts, LHSAA does. Is it Terrebonne's fault that they get only two "quality" district games against Central Lafourche. No, they didn't set up their district. Even though in this case they may have been seeded #2 overall going in, look at the competition they would have had to overcome to get to the finals.

And yes, suddendeath, 14 and 15 would be the teams represented this season, but if they made this far, according to the seeding they would have played in the semis instead of the finals.

[blueandwhite12]

Please understand that by no means was I trying to bash your idea. Your plan is one of the best I have heard so far; I just listed my lingering concerns....As much as I like the idea of seeding, I just do not know whether it would bring with it artificial injustices. But your plan is thorough and certainly thought-provoking; however, I am still unsure that even such an intelligent design could rule out unfairness. And of course, you are right, even teams that receive surprisingly high rankings in the system would have to beat formidable opponents to receive the title, so in that way, the system would work out. I also like the spreading of the districts. You have certainly proposed an interesting, intelligent idea, and I was in no way trying to undermine it.

[jlove47]

did DivisionII just switch to a 16 team playoff for next year? 1-2 are in from all divisions and only 2 wild cards with the best winning percentage is in?

[Tigertail]

No offense, I was just adding to my exhaustive post.

No matter what system is used, bad pairings will always come to light. In the NBA last season two of the best teams played in the second round of the playoffs. It happens in football, in soccer, and on and on.

I definitely understand your issues and agree with some. Just in reviewing feedback on this site all season long, the fact that the D-1 bracket was fishy made for interesting talk.

This is just my spin on what could be done. I, as a coach, took exception to the fact that one district's 1st and 2nd seed played in the second round. It should seem logical that 1st and 2nd teams from a given district should see different sides of the bracket. That's just common sense!

My thinking is that teams usually report their district finish, district record, and record against teams in their division. LHSAA would have the info readily available. They would just need to take a few extra minutes to figure percentages and seed.

[Tigertail]

jlove47 said:

did DivisionII just switch to a 16 team playoff for next year? 1-2 are in from all divisions and only 2 wild cards with the best winning percentage is in?

That is correct. Means 16 of 37 teams statewide in D-2 make playoffs. A bit under 50% of all D-2 teams can make the playoffs.

In D-1 almost 60% of all teams make playoffs, in D-3 over 70% of teams make postseason.

I think keeping the playoffs more selective (smaller #'s compared to the overall number of teams) makes the competition better and pairings more valid across the board from the first round on.

[soccerrouge]

tigertail, how do you suppose cutting the D1 down? If you go down to the top2 teams in the districts only (which gives you 16 in D1). That would mean teams like Comeaux (who made it to the final 8), St. Amant (who made it to the final 8), Chapelle (who made it to the final 16), and Natch. Central & Ponchatoula (who both knocked off district champions in the 1st round) would have not been in the postseason. Would that be fair to those girls?
I understand the points, but like someone earlier stated, no matter how they setup the brackets, to win the championship, you have to win your last game in the playoffs, regardless of where you cross the challenges.

[Tigertail]

soccerrouge said:

tigertail, how do you suppose cutting the D1 down? If you go down to the top2 teams in the districts only (which gives you 16 in D1). That would mean teams like Comeaux (who made it to the final 8), St. Amant (who made it to the final 8), Chapelle (who made it to the final 16), and Natch. Central & Ponchatoula (who both knocked off district champions in the 1st round) would have not been in the postseason. Would that be fair to those girls?
I understand the points, but like someone earlier stated, no matter how they setup the brackets, to win the championship, you have to win your last game in the playoffs, regardless of where you cross the challenges.

I'm not saying cut down the D1 # of teams by any means. That comment was in regards to D3 where 32 of the 44 teams in D3 will qualify for playoffs. Some teams will definitely be overmatched in the first round. In D2 the number of districts is decreased for the next two years, so only 16 teams will qualify...meaning only 1st and 2nd place teams and 2 wildcards get in.

I understand what is being stated about the fairness of the brackets...it is highly unlikely that this could be rectified. That said, I'm trying to take the human element out using math.

The D1 bracket was changed so dramatically this season...but to serve what purpose?

A fair, perfect bracket would never exist. How many people had Dominican in the finals when the bracket was released this month (Dominican fans don't count) or even Neville in the finals (Neville fans too)? Probably not many...however they put Mt. Carmel, Mandeville, and Dutchtown out. Most people would have not given Dominican a shot in all 3 of these games.

In a perfect bracket, all high seeds would advance every round, and that, frankly, is boring. Upsets are what make the game thrive, underdogs bring passion to the sport!

I have no issue with "to be the best you have to beat the best." A lot of folks had issues with the way the road was laid this season...I'm just trying to put forth an OBJECTIVE means to lay the path for all teams.

[soccerrouge]

My bad tigertail, I thought you were talking about cutting down the number of D1 teams. With the Lafayette, Mandeville, and Baton Rouge area districts, that would have eliminated some good teams. I do like what you put together at the very top of the thread. I think taking the approach of removing the human element as much as possible is a good idea.

[Tigertail]

I was just nosing around the LHSAA website this morning, and found this in the Volleyball by-laws. This seems like a decent way to approach doing power ratings for soccer, or at least a starting point for discussion. I think this is something the coaches association should start to entertain.

From the LHSAA Volleyball By-Laws:
DETERMINING POWER RATING
24.6.4.3 The power rating for each school shall be determined as
follows:
Result of Contest Add
Win (5 points) Opponents Wins (100%)
Loss (0 points) Opponents Wins (33%)
24.6.4.4 A schools power rating shall be the total power points of
matches played divided by the number of total matches played
during the regular season.
24.6.6.3 Contests played against out of state opponents, sub-varsity opponents and district playoff (tie breaker) matches shall not count in determining the schools power rating.

Any thoughts?

[rocksccrstar]

Let me put my two cents in (although it might not be worth that much) but I am the head volleyball and soccer coach at my high school. This is the first year we have used a power rating system in volleyball and I thought it worked really well.

The top two teams from each district advance no matter where they fall in the power rating, then they go back and fill in the spaces based on the power ratings. This kills two birds with one stone in my opinion. It allows those teams who did well in their district to advance but it also allows those teams who play in harder districts to advance, (rather than just pulling a third place team from a weak district because they were third.)

The system rewards you for playing a harder team. If you lose you get 33% of their win points and if you beat a harder team then you get rewarded for your efforts with 100% of their win points.

I like the system very much and think it would work very well with soccer. It is just getting it approved by the LHSAA and getting someone to do it (there is software for this--the LVCA has it.)

Ok maybe that was my three cents......

[Mung]

All nice thoughts, but with 32 teams in both D1 and D3, the travel in the opening rounds, and later, would be killer. You could potentially have teams from Shreveport going to New Orleans and vice versa for a wildcard game, forcing them to spend $1000 on a bus to go get smoked. Not likely to be popular. With DII going down to 16 teams, all except 2 will be 1st or 2nd place teams in district, and more serious about their playoffs chances, and more willing to travel far. The present system ignores seeding, but tries to keep the games geographically close until the later rounds, which is good for the fans who travel with the teams.

[Tigertail]

I also think this method works because it rewards you for playing in-state teams as well.

Also, if coaches have to report their results to the LHSAA, then these should be checked against common opponents. I know some folks had voiced concerns about coaches submitting inaccurate results.

[pompey]

Mung and Tiger, good points, but a few comments:

- not so sure you should be punished for playing out of state teams.
- Not so sure a team coming in 3rd or 4th in D1 or D3 is any less fired up to go to playoffs as compared to a 2nd placed D2 school. Am sure there are exceptions, like anything.
- last yr, first round, McKinley, BR travelled to Neville!

[Tigertail]

Not "punished" but rewarded for playing in-state. I'd be willing to say that VB coaches have not shied (yes, that's spelled correct, I looked in a dictionary) away from quality out-of-state opponents.

[Mung]

Pompey, I'm just speaking from our experience over the years in DII, which used to have a 32 team bracket, and maybe 37-39 teams in the whole division, so almost everyone made the playoffs. Some teams would be eligible, despite being the district doormat, and would not qualify. Other teams would back out after being assigned to a distant game. One year ASH was scheduled to play a home game vs. Dutchtown in the 2nd round, but since their opponent backed out, we were forced to travel to them. Just an example.

[Tigertail]

Stewing a little more over this...ties come into play in HS friendly soccer.

That would have to be considered as well.

Maybe 1 or 2 points per tie and 50% of opponents wins???