LSU better than USC in 2003

[LSUbest]

DETERMINING THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF TEAMS THAT DO NOT PLAY EACH OTHER

IF TWO TEAMS DONT PLAY EACH OTHER, HOW DO YOU DETERMINE WHICH TEAM IS BETTER? WE HAVE TO DO THIS ALL THE TIME. FOR INSTANCE, HOW DO WE KNOW THAT LSU WAS BETTER THAN BOISE STATE LAST YEAR IF THEY HAD THE SAME RECORD? OR GEORGIA BETTER THAN TCU?

OF COURSE, WE CAN'T KNOW WITH ANY EMPIRICAL CERTAINTITY BECAUSE TO GET THAT CERTAINTITY WE WOULD NEED THE TWO TEAMS TO PLAY.
HOWEVER, WE MAKE SUCH SUBJECTIVE JUDGMENTS ALL THE TIME. A TEAM THAT FINISHES 10-1 IN THE SEC IS ALMOST ALWAYS THOUGHT OF AS A MUCH, MUCH, MUCH STRONGER TEAM THAN A CUSA TEAM THAT FINISHES 10-1.

FOR INSTANCE, WHY IN 1998 WHEN TENNESSEE WAS 12-0 THOUGHT OF AS A MUCH BETTER TEAM THAN TULANE, A TEAM THAT ALSO FINISHED 12-0?

WE HAVE TO HAVE SOME SORT OF JUDGMENT SYSTEM TO ON WHICH TO BASE THESE DETERMINATIONS OR ELSE WE HAVE NO NEED TO DIVIDE TEAMS INTO CONFERENCES OR EVEN DIVISIONS (DIV IAA, ETC.).

THIS IS HOW I COMPARE/RANK TEAMS IF THEY DON'T PLAY EACH OTHER. NUMBERED IN ORDER OF IMPORTANCE.
1. W/L RECORD
2. STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
3. MARGIN OF VICTORY
4. NUMBER OF RANKED TEAMS PLAYED (SIMILAR, BUT EXACTLY THE SAME AS SOS BECAUSE TO BE THE BEST YOU HAVE TO BEAT THE BEST).
5. RESULTS AGAINST COMMON OPPONENTS IF ANY
6. HOW TEAMS DID ON THE ROAD.
7. STRENGTH OF DEFENSE.
8. TALENT AND COACHING

IT'S INTERESTING THAT WHEN IT COMES DOWN TO 2003, LSU WAS AHEAD OF USC IN EACH OF THE ABOVE CATEGORIES.

FACT, FICTION, AND OPINION:
FACT: LSU HAD A TOUGHER STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE THAN USC
FACT: LSU HAD A LARGER MARGIN OF VICTORY THAN USC
FACT: LSU PLAYED FIVE TIMES THE NUMBER OF RANKED TEAMS DURING THE REGULAR SEASON THAN USC.
FACT: LSU'S ONLY LOSS WAS TO A RANKED TEAM. USC'S ONLY LOSS WAS TO UNRANKED, SIX LOSS CAL.
FACT: LSU HAD BETTER RESULTS AGAINST COMMON OPPONENTS, ARIZONA AND AUBURN, THAN USC.
FACT: COMMON OPPONENTS COACHES AND PLAYERS (ARIZONA AND AUBURN AGAIN) SAID AFTER PLAYING BOTH TEAMS THAT LSU WAS BETTER. SOURCE: msnbc.msn.com/id/3475396/
FACT: LSU HAD THE #1 DEFENSE IN THE NATION. USC HAD THE 30TH, INCLUDING THE 110TH RATED PASS DEFENSE.
FACT: LSU HAD MORE WINS THAN USC.
FACT: LSU WON TWO CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES, INCLUDING THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME. USC WON ZERO. ITS BOWL WIN WAS OVER #6.
FACT: LSU PLAYED A PLAYOFF. LSU'S LAST FOUR GAMES WERE AGAINST #13, #27, #5, AND #3. LSU WON BY AN AVERAGE OF OVER 15 AGAINST EACH.
FACT: USC PLAYED NOTHING RESEMBLING A PLAYOFF. IT FINISHED THE SEASON BY PLAYING 3 UNRANKED TEAMS, AND THEN AN OVERRATED MICHIGAN TEAM THAT LOST 3 GAMES, INCLUDING ONE TO AN UNRANKED TEAM.
FACT: LSU PLAYED RANKED TEAMS ON THE ROAD.
FACT: USC PLAYED ZERO RANKED TEAMS ON THE ROAD. CONSIDERING HOW IT DID AGAINST UNRANKED CAL ON THE ROAD, A LOSS, WE MIGHT HAVE SEEN SOME DIFFERENT ARGUMENTS ABOUT WHO DESERVED TO BE IN THE SUGAR IN OU'S STEAD.
FACT: LSU has 8 more players from 2003 than USC currently playing in the NFL

THE STRANGE ABSENCE OF USC'S FAN'S ARGUMENTS FOR USC'S WORTHINESS:

WHERE IS USC'S ARGUMENT?

WITH ALL THE FACTS I THROW OUT HERE, ISN'T IT ODD THAT USC FANS NEVER REBUTE THEM? YOU WOULD THINK SOME GENIUS USC FANS (ISN'T USC SUPPOSED TO BE A GOOD SCHOOL? OR IS IT ONE OF THOSE PAY 30 GRAND A YEAR AND GET B'S TYPE SCHOOL?) WOULD MAKE SOMETHING OF AN ARGUMENT.

BUT THERE IS NONE.

SURE, SOME OF YOU WILL SAY THAT THE USC FANS JUST AREN'T OBSESSIVE LIKE I AM. OTHERS WILL SAY USC FANS SIMPLY DON'T CARE BECAUSE THEY'VE WON MANY NATIONAL TITLES WHILE LSU HAS ONLY WON 2 IN THE PAST FIFTY YEARS.

REMEMBER, THOUGH, USC HASN'T WON A NATIONAL TITLE SINCE 78.

REMEMBER, USC FANS HAVE TRIED TO ARGUE WITH ME IN THE PAST.

REMEMBER, THE INTERNET BRINGS OUT PRIDE IN PEOPLE. PEOPLE WANT TO ARGUE THEIR CASE UNTIL THEY ARE ABSOLUTELY AND TOTALLY EMBARRASSED AND HUMILIATED. USC FANS IN THE PAST HAVE BEEN DRIVEN INTO THE GROUND BY ME, AND THESE SAME USC FANS THAT CONTINUE TO POST NOW, SUCH AS NYCUSC, PACTENFAN, STR8TEASTCOAST, AENEASTROJAN, ETC., CURRENTLY ABSTAIN FROM THE ARGUMENT ALTOGETHER, NOT BECAUSE THEY NO LONGER CARE BUT BECAUSE I HAVE DESTROYED EACH OF THE ARGUMENTS AND COUNTER-ARGUMENTS.

IF USC HAD A CASE, IT WOULD HAVE BEEN MADE. SIMPLY PUT, USC IS THE MOST OVERRATED TEAM IN THE HISTORY OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL. USC FANS REALIZE THIS, AND HOPE THAT THIS OFF SEASON MOVES ALONG QUICKLY BECAUSE THEY BELIEVE IT WILL SHUT ME UP.

[3232]

SCHEDULES COMPARED AND ANALYZED:
LSU proved it is #1 by beating top teams. USC went through the season playing almost exclusively #50-#60 teams. In fact, USC was voted #1 by the AP after playing just one top 25 team! And zero ranked teams on the road!!

Schedules compared side by side (LSU on left/ USC on right).

Oklahoma (12-2) vs Michigan (10-3): OU favored.
UGA (11-3) vs. Washington State (10-3): UGA favored.
UGA (11-3) vs. Auburn (8-5): UGA beat Auburn.
Ole Miss (10-3) vs. Cal (8-6): Ole Miss favored.
Florida (8-5) vs. Oregon State (8-5): UF favored.
Arkansas (9-4) vs. Notre (5-7) Dame: Arkansas favored.
Auburn (8-5) vs. UCLA (6-7): Auburn favored.
------------------------------------------------
Bottom 7:
#62 South Carolina vs. #54 Washington : Washington favored.
#68 Alabama vs. #56 Hawaii: Hawaii won.
#77 LA Tech vs #67 Stanford: Stanford favored.
#89 Arizona vs #72 Arizona State: Arizona State won.
#95 Mississippi State vs #74 BYU: BYU favored.
#117 ULM vs. #89 Arizona: Arizona favored.
Western Illinois: No USC opponent to compare with.

So despite LSU playing three of the worst teams, LSU's strength of schedule is better than USC's in every computer except one. A top 5 team should be able to #60 as easily as #117. Should the strength of schedule consider beating #117 and #1 as indicative as beating #60 and#61? Would you be more impressed if LSU had beaten #1 Oklahoma and #117 Louisiana Monroe or if LSU beat #60 North Texas and #61 Tulsa? LSU's SOS was hurt greatly because of its bottom half schedule (even so, LSU's SOS was tougher than USC's!). But a great team is defined by its ability to win the tough games, which LSU has done. Beating abunch of 45-75 teams is nice for your strength of schedule, but it does nothing to prove that your team deserves a shot at the national title.

Looking at USC's schedule, it's no wonder they looked impressive onpaper. They simply played inferior opponents.

One ranked team during the regular season.
Zero ranked teams on the road.
As many losses to unranked teams as wins over ranked teams.
Embarrassing.

[5464]

THE FINAL BCS STANDINGS AFTER THE BOWLS:
The computer polls actually post new rankings after the bowl games. And since SOS changes can still be determined, Rich Tellshow has come up with the final tally.
..........................W-L...Comp..CoachAP....Ave....QW....SOS.....Total
1 LSU.................13-1....1.00......1......2.....1.5.....1.2.....0.52.....2.82
2 USC.................12-1....1.83......2......1.....1.5.....0.4....0.80......4.73
3 Ohio State.......11-2....4.33......4......4.....4.0.....0.2....0.56.....10.29
4 Oklahoma.......12-2....5.00......3......3.....3.0......0......0.56.....10.56
------------------------------------------------
FINAL COMPUTER RANKINGS:
LSU wins 6 of 7 computer polls, most by SIGNIFICANT margins over USC. Only the NYTimes poll gave USC the #1 spot, by a VERY SLIGHT margin.
LSU finishes 13th in the nation in SOS, ahead of OU who finishes 14th
and USC finished 20th. LSU was mere fractions away from actually
finishing 10th. Remove the Western Illinois game, which should have
never been scheduled, and LSU finishes 8th.
Computer poll results:

Kevin Massey
1 LSU..........5.060
2 USC..........4.756
3 Ohio St.....4.604
4 Georgia.....4.572
5 Miami OH...4.550

Jeff Sagarin
1 LSU..........98.21
2 USC..........95.56
3 Georgia.....92.01
4 Miami OH...91.89
5 Miami FL....91.21

NY Times
1 USC...........1.000
2 LSU............0.996
3 Maryland.....0.934
4 Ohio St.......0.927
5 Miami..........0.909
(Note: Maryland #3......hmmmmmm....makes you wonder about this poll)

Billingsley
1 LSU.............309.977
2 USC.............308.769
3 Oklahoma......295.654
4 Miami FL.......291.686
5 Ohio St.........290.926
(Note: LSU started the season 30 points behind USC in the first polling
for Billingsley)

Anderson-Hester
1 LSU...........0.792
2 USC...........0.774
3 Miami OH....0.758
4 Oklahoma....0.746
5 Ohio St.......0.744

Peter Wolfe
1 LSU............7.634
2 USC............7.252
3 Miami OH......6.910
4 Georgia........6.904
5 Oklahoma.....6.766

Colley Matrix
1 LSU...........0.93172
2 USC...........0.91873
3 Ohio St......0.87783
4 Oklahoma...0.87058
5 Miami FL.....0.84364

As you can see, there is as much distance between LSU and USC as there is between USC and the 3rd place team in Massey, Sagarin,
Anderson-Hester and Peter Wolfe. These polls are handing #1 to LSU without a doubt. Billingsley is only close because teams are not considered even going into the season, he uses a preseason ranking and USC had a 30 point margin on LSU to start off with. Colley also gives LSU some breathing room ahead of USC. What can you say about the NY Times? Maryland #3 says it all. Computer polls tell the whole story. Humans do not get to meddle with it and show their bias like the AP/Coaches poll.

[654]

LSU over USC BREAKDOWN:

1. LSU is 3-0 vs. teams ranked in the final AP Top Ten with wins over #3 Oklahoma and #7 Georgia (Twice). USC is 2-0 vs. AP Top Ten teams with wins over #6 Mich and #9 Wash State, a team that was comparable to an unranked LSU opponent Arkansas.
2. LSU is 4-0 vs. teams ranked in the top 15 (top ten wins plus #13 OleMiss). USC is 2-0 vs. top 15 teams

3. LSU has FIVE wins against teams that finished in the AP Top 25. USCl has TWO wins against teams that finished in the AP

4. The seventh-highest ranked team LSU defeated (30th-ranked Auburn) was the third-best team that USC played.

5. Losses compared:LSU's lone loss was the 24th ranked Florida. The Gators five losseswere ALL to top 15 teams (final rankings): Miami (5th), Tennessee(15th), Ole Miss (13th), Florida State (11th -- game refs stole from Florida) and Iowa (8th). In addition to beating LSU the Gators posted a win over No. 6 UGA and Arkansas (27th-RV). LSU lost the game due to turnovers. The game was close, and it took a late game fumble at the Florida 20 to seal the game for the Gators. Florida only outgained LSU by 20 yards.

USC's loss was to UNRANKED and SIX LOSS California. Cal's six losses were to Kansas State (13th) and Utah (21st) and UNRANKED Colorado State, Oregon State, UCLA and Oregon. Cal beat no other ranked teams. Cal dominated the game, and the only thing that kept USC in the game was Cal's turnovers (5 in total). Cal outgained USC by 100 yards.

6. Margin of Victory: LSU's margin of victory (22.9) was greater than USC's (22.6).

7. SECCG > Rose BowlUSC plays a home game in the Rose Bowl against #4 Michigan (a team which also had a loss to an unranked opponent as well) and wins by 2 TDs. The media calls it a dominating victory and immediately declares USC national champs days before the polls come out.

LSU defeats #5 UGA in front of heavily UGA-partisan crowd in the Georgia Dome by 3 touchdowns. Good game says the media.

8. Common Opponents, Auburn and Arizona:

LSU defeated common opponent Auburn 31-7 after AU had won five straight including wins over then-Top Ten ranked teams in Arkansas and Tennessee. LSU sprinted out to a 21-0 lead early in the first quarter and cruised the rest of the way, taking its starters out of the game in the middle of the 3rd, up 31-0. USC defeated Auburn 23-0, but was forced to keep its starters in the entire game, up by only 2 TD's in the middle of the 4th quarter.

LSU defeated common opponent Arizona 59-13, scoring 38 first half points. The Trojans scored 35 first half points en route to a 45-0 win over the Wildcats. Pretty much a wash, until you realize that Arizona players and coaches said that LSU was a superior team to USC. Whose opinion matters more than those of the players and coaches who faced off against both teams?

9. SEC and PAC 10 Compared:

5 SEC teams finished the season ranked in the AP Top 25 compared to 2 for the PAC. The PAC went 4-2 in the bowls with the only wins over ranked teams by USC and Wash State. The SEC went 5-2 in bowls with wins by LSU over No. 3 OU, UGA over then No. 18 Purdue, Ole Miss over then No. 22 Oklahoma State. Florida lost to No 8 Iowa and Tennessee was upset by No. 22 Clemson. All 7 SEC bowl opponents were from BCS conferences, compared to 4 for the PAC. Only two Pac-10 won 10 or more games, compared to four in the SEC.

10. Bowls Compared

OU was much better than Michigan. The National Championship Game, even though it was in Louisiana, was probably a 60-40 split in favor of OU fans b/c OU fans, knowing that they would be in the Sugar Bowl for a long time, were able to buy tickets far in advance of LSU fans. The Rose Bowl was a good 80-20 split for USC. OU was playing for a national championship. Michigan was playing for a higher ranking. Both LSU and USC were equally dominant. The difference was that LSU was playing a far better team that had much more motivation to win in a non-LSU dominated atmosphere.

11. USC fans wanted to go to the Sugar Bowl.

All year long, the goal of all top teams was to make it to the Sugar Bowl. Everyone rightfully assumed that if you didn't make it to the BCS Championship Game, you couldn't be named a champion. USC fans know this quite well, and you can see in the following link to pictures the sentiment among USC fans following their last regular season game against Oregon State, where they clearly want to go to the Sugar, not Rose, Bowl. Beware of those revisionist USC fans who say they wanted the Rose over the Sugar.

public.fotki.com/LSUoverUSC/ The password is "lsu" in lowercase letters.

[909]

REASONS TO QUESTION AND DISREGARD THE AP:
1. THE AP VOTERS WATCH VERY FEW OF THE GAMES. SATURDAY IS THEIR BIGGEST WORK DAY BECAUSE THEY ARE PREPARING THEIR SUNDAY STORIES. IF THEY COVER THE LOCAL COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEAT, THEY ARE GOING TO THE LOCAL TEAM'S GAME. THAT WILL CONSUME THEIR ENTIRE SATURDAY.

2. THE AP WAS STRIPPED OF ITS POWER IN GIVING A NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE IN 1998 WHEN THE BCS WAS INSTITUTED. THE AP HAS SINCE WRITTEN ARTICLE AFTER ARTICLE ABOUT HOW THE BCS IS MESSED UP AND HOW THE OLD SYSTEM IS BETTER. THE AP SAW A PERFECT OPPORTUNITY TO DISCREDIT THE BCS IN 2003, AND USED THE POWER OF THE PRESS TO CAMPAIGN FOR A INFERIOR AND LESS DESERVING TEAM. THE AP WAS MOTIVATED TO DISCREDIT THE BCS AND NAME ITS OWN CHAMPION.

3. THE AP POLL IS INHERENTLY FLAWED:

a. FIRST, ITS STARTS WITH A PRESEASON POLL. A TEAM THAT STARTS AT #10 AND FINISHES 8-3 WILL BE RANKED AT THE END OF THE YEAR. A TEAM THAT STARTS UNRANKED AND FINISHES 8-3 LIKELY WILL NOT BE RANKED AT THE END OF THE YEAR. THERE SIMPLY IS TOO MUCH EMPHASIS PUT ON PRESEASON RANKINGS, AND THAT EMPHASIS CARRIES OVER THE ENTIRE SEASON.

b. SECOND, IT REWARDS TEAMS FOR LOSING EARLIER RATHER THAN LATER. SO WHAT THAT USC LOST A WEEK BEFORE LSU. WAS THAT A REASON FOR USC TO BE RANKED AHEAD OF LSU? HAD LSU LOST THE FIRST WEEK OF THE SEASON AND USC THE FIFTH TO LAST, WOULD LSU HAVE BEEN VOTED #1 BY THE AP? IF SO, THAT IS AN AWFULLY STUPID REASON!

Perhaps most importantly, How can you win the NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP WHEN YOU DON'T EARN A BERTH IN THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME? For the above reasons, USC did not deserve to be in the title game. But we're going to accept the biased, ignorant, and motivated to destroy the BCS opinion of the AP voters and its media friends? Miami OH had a more legitimate claim to the title than USC because at least they didn't agree to the BCS system as the way in which the two top teams would earn a spot in the title game to play for the championship. USC simply did not have the credentials in 2003 to earn a spot in the title game, muchless win the title.

[soccer2006]

who cares lol the only way to tell who is better is to play each other doesnt matter wat the paper says or stats..

[runkickball]

yay lsu

[hideki]

wow that must have taken hours

[Punkaro]

LSUBest know his stuff