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Post by flat3 on Jan 8, 2006 17:00:45 GMT -6
Here is the list of schools ranked by the formula created by myself. In a nutshell, they include a. overall win %, adjusted for schedule strength, and b. quality win points, calculated by win %, shutout, and blowout against quality opponents. Scheduled strength and quality opponents are based upon laprepsoccer Top 10 for each division and Top 10 (All Divisions). Team records are provided by coachray40. Send me PM if you want to know the formula. 1. 625.00 Jesuit 2. 424.09 Laffy 3. 408.57 St. Louis 4. 403.79 St. Pauls 5. 382.23 Vandy 6. 336.50 Dutchtown 7. 294.74 St. Amant 8. 280.20 B.M. 9. 273.69 O.C 10. 253.33 Byrd 11. 239.75 Capt. Shreve 12. 225.62 West Feliciana 13. 222.79 STM 14. 219.70 Catholic 15. 210.61 University 16. 205.87 Airline 17. 205.84 Terrebonne 18. 205.56 Carencro 19. 200.87 Destrehan 20. 193.00 Caddo 21. 191.56 B.R. 22. 185.00 Fontainebleau 23. 180.18 St. Martin's 24. 178.62 ASH 25. 167.65 Rummel 26. 164.88 Teurlings 27. 159.56 Parkway 28. 158.33 Mandeville 29. 145.58 Neville 30. 139.58 Acadiana 31. 100.00 CL 32. 94.95 St. Thomas Aquinas 33. 93.53 E.A. 34. 82.65 Comeaux 35. 51.67 Holy Cross
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Post by genius player on Jan 8, 2006 17:29:32 GMT -6
Top 10 for each division then is
D1
1.Jesuit 2. Lafayette 3. St Pauls 4. Dutchtown 5. St. Amant 6. Brother Martin 7. Captain Shreve 8. Catholic 9. Airline 10. Terrebonne
D2 1. Vandebilt 2. Saint Thomas More 3. ASH 4. Parkway 5. Neville 6. East Ascension
D3
1. St Louis 2. Opelousas Catholic 3. West Feliciana 4. St Martins 5. Teurlings Catholic 6. St Thomas Aquinas
IF you kept it going we could get a top ten for each.
Then we could do a BCS poll.
1/3 computer 1/3 timaeus 1/3 laprep members
that is probably the best way to do it
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Post by byrdsoccer1 on Jan 8, 2006 17:44:10 GMT -6
actually Byrd would be #7 in Div. I if you look at it like that. That's definately not the best way to do it. Honestly there's no way that we should be ahead of Shreve and no where naer that far ahead of Caddo. Same with Airline, shouldn't be that high up and Caddo should be closer.
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Post by flat3 on Jan 8, 2006 19:10:17 GMT -6
As I repeatedly wrote, these rankings are basically for fun and some enlightenment. I, for example, didn't base my votes based on these rankings alone. By the way, University would have been #4 in DIII. This is how I voted for W.F. (#3) and University (#4).
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Post by flat3 on Jan 14, 2006 21:29:52 GMT -6
Updated Computer Rankings as of 1/14/06 I changed one criterion from the last week, so that these rankings are not comparable to those in the last week. The formula, however, is finally set so that from the next week, we can interpret the up- or downward movements. 1 556.35 Jesuit 2 444.73 Laffy 3 429.17 St. Pauls 4 403.57 St. Louis 5 372.00 Dutchtown 6 348.61 Vandy 7 302.78 B.M. 8 288.57 St. Amant 9 282.50 O.C 10 280.03 Capt. Shreve 11 233.64 Byrd 12 225.00 West Feliciana 13 221.17 B.R. 14 213.29 University 15 210.17 Terrebonne 16 206.49 Carencro 17 204.69 STM 18 198.37 Mandeville 19 192.82 Airline 20 191.70 Fontainebleau 21 191.25 Caddo 22 191.00 Teurlings 23 188.11 Rummel 24 183.57 Catholic 25 182.44 Destrehan 26 177.68 ASH 27 159.56 Parkway 28 148.86 Neville 29 146.61 St. Martin's 30 146.02 Pineville 31 139.71 Acadiana 32 130.78 DeRidder 33 111.11 CL 34 108.16 St. Thomas Aquinas 35 106.67 Zachary 36 104.29 Menard 37 100.00 Newman 38 89.66 E.A. 39 82.67 Comeaux 40 51.21 Holy Cross
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Post by mrdashriprock on Jan 14, 2006 22:22:51 GMT -6
As I repeatedly wrote, these rankings are basically for fun ...quote] Make that 'fun-ny' - obviously your computer does not have a grasp on Shreveport/Bossier Div I teams. I agree with Shreve being on top, but BYRD and AIRLINE ahead of CADDO MAGNET??? Shreve's advantage over Caddo in district play is one pk and neither have come close to losing against Airline or Byrd. Don't blame the computer for this one. If the data really puts Shreve #10, Byrd #11, Airline #19, and Caddo #21 - your data is un-enlightened.
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Post by flat3 on Jan 15, 2006 0:09:18 GMT -6
If the data really puts Shreve #10, Byrd #11, Airline #19, and Caddo #21 - your data is un-enlightened. See below. Shreve: 19-3 (Overall Strength=1.41), Quality Score = 105.56, Q. Opponent Strength = 1.50 Byrd: 7-3 (Overall Strength=1.91), Quality Score = 60.00, Q. Opponent Strength = 1.67 Airline: 10-3-2 (Overall Strength=1.47), Quality Score = 57.14, Q. Opponent Strength = 1.40 Caddo: 9-3 (Overall Strength=1.75), Quality Score = 33.33, Q. Opponent Strength = 1.80 Just in case you are "un-enlightened" with math, this means that Byrd has a stronger schedule strength, and Caddo didn't do too well against quality opponents. Having said that, I admit that this order does not reflect the true ranking of these programs, as byrdsoccer1 stated himself. My Top 10 does not include Byrd, either. I repeat that computer rankings are for fun, and no computer ranking is perfect.
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Post by ShreveDad on Jan 15, 2006 10:33:48 GMT -6
Some questions on this weeks poll: I would have thought St. Pauls would have moved down with a 1 goal win and a 1 goal (PKs) loss. Neither team was in the top 40 in the computer poll. That should hurt St. Pauls in every category. Top 10-yes, #3-not any more.
I also wonder how Byrd is still so high. It has to be the win over Shreve in the Parkway tournament that is keeping them up there. They have played 5 matches against top 21 teams. (I have to include Magnet) 2 wins - Airline and Shreve, 3 losses-Magnet (twice) and Shreve. Magnet has played 5 matches against top 11 teams. 2 wins (Byrd twice), 3 losses - Shreve (twice) and St. Pauls. Magnet seems to have played the tougher schedule. Byrd scores: 2-1,3-2,1-4,2-7,2-4. Magnet scores: 4-1,1-3,0-4,1-2,4-2. Goal Differential: Byrd (-8) Magnet (-2).
Personally, I think a well constucted computer poll is the best poll. Takes all personal biases out of the ranking. Thanks to Flat3 for spending the time to do this. These are not criticisms, just questions.
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Post by flat3 on Jan 15, 2006 15:40:29 GMT -6
shrevedad, Thanks to Flat3 for spending the time to do this. These are not criticisms, just questions. You are welcome, and I thank you for your contructive comments. I always respect your posts and this one is no exception. Some questions on this weeks poll: I would have thought St. Pauls would have moved down with a 1 goal win and a 1 goal (PKs) loss. Neither team was in the top 40 in the computer poll. That should hurt St. Pauls in every category. Top 10-yes, #3-not any more. I agree. In my Top 10 All Divisions poll, St. Paul is #7, despite the #3 computer ranking. Also, "Top 40" in the computer polls are not quite Top 40. I only have data for 40 schools and #40 on the list (Holy Cross) does not mean they are 40th best program. I also wonder how Byrd is still so high. It has to be the win over Shreve in the Parkway tournament that is keeping them up there. They have played 5 matches against top 21 teams. (I have to include Magnet) 2 wins - Airline and Shreve, 3 losses-Magnet (twice) and Shreve. Magnet has played 5 matches against top 11 teams. 2 wins (Byrd twice), 3 losses - Shreve (twice) and St. Pauls. Magnet seems to have played the tougher schedule. Byrd scores: 2-1,3-2,1-4,2-7,2-4. Magnet scores: 4-1,1-3,0-4,1-2,4-2. Goal Differential: Byrd (-8) Magnet (-2). You made a very good point, and I again agree with you. I place Caddo above Byrd myself in my human poll. What keeps Byrd up so high in the computer ranking is their their wins vs. Parkway and Neville. Since both of them were 4-0, Byrd got both the Shutout point and the Blowout point in these games. Since both Parkway and Neville are ranked, there isn't much I can do. You are right about Caddo playing a harder schedule. They just didn't capitalize on that. Personally, I think a well constucted computer poll is the best poll. Takes all personal biases out of the ranking. Though it may sound odd from the creator of the computer poll, I will probably disagree. I think the best human poll is better than the best constructed computer poll. The computer poll can't handle "momentum," "tradition," and other intangibles. I am sure that I can further improve my computer polls, but I feel like these are "good enough" to help us vote our Top 10. For example, I was a lone voter for Baton Rouge last week solely based on computer rankings, and they will be surely ranked this week since they beat Catholic and St. Amant. The computer polls told me Acadiana might not be as good as some people thought, before they lost to Carencro 3-1. Currently, the computer polls do not rank Rummel as high as human polls, and we will see how they fare in the near future. Again, thanks shrevedad for your great comments.
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Post by coachray40 on Jan 15, 2006 17:10:21 GMT -6
I think the computer poll and the ability to see teams actual records and results together gives us a better way to evaluate teams for placement in the human poll. Acadiana might be the best indicator, as the computer poll might have exposed their weaker results, and then the records page showed who and where they lost. Loss to Carencro exposed them. Given that information most of the pollsters chose to remove them from the top ten, where I think they would have stayed in the polls throughout the season based on "name recognition without a computer evaluation and a clear look at their results. St Amant might be another good example. While the Gators have played well throughout the season, they have struggled recently. They are probably still a well respected team, but probably dont warrant inclusion in this weeks top ten because of recent results, despite the high computer rank. Its all information that has never been really provided before--we all just kind of picked teams out of the air for inclusion. Now we have a couple of markers to examine each team with, and then make a more informed decision.
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Post by Pitchstalker on Jan 15, 2006 17:25:41 GMT -6
I think Flat3 and CoachRay have done more than anyone, ever, to help us in coming up with an "INFORMED" TOP TEN. Nothing will be perfect, but for those voting, this year has been one of the "more informed' Top Ten's ever.
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Post by ShreveDad on Jan 15, 2006 18:12:46 GMT -6
I agree, thanks guys!
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Post by flat3 on Jan 15, 2006 21:30:47 GMT -6
I am just glad that I can contribute to this board. I thank Coachray40 for providing records and q, who came up with the idea of lising W/L records of each team and All Division Top 10. He provided the original idea.
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Post by ooldschool on Jan 17, 2006 16:27:23 GMT -6
Using this information, why isn't this poll considered "THE POLL" for state ranking. The data used is really the only thing that should matter. The old saying "any givin day any team can beat any other team" would still apply. If an underdog should upset a higher ranked team, this would effect both teams accordingly. Personally, I would have a difference of one or two, but looking at the info that your working from, it logical. Thanks to flat3 and coachray40 for putting in the time.
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Bench Warmer
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Post by on Jan 17, 2006 18:40:09 GMT -6
great job flat3. i know you have spent a hugh amount of time on this and i for one appreciate it.
one thing though there is no way you can convience me that acadiana is the 31st team in louisiana. maybe reverse the number and you would be close. LOL. keep up the good work, but remeber guys the playoffs will settle all of this.
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Post by f on Jan 17, 2006 19:56:39 GMT -6
the reason this system isnt used is because while i do believe its a great idea and great system, there are obvious flaws in it. As goat said, Acadiana is obviously better than 31st. Caddo is also better than 21 and there's no way that Byrd is number 11. The great thing about this system is it shows more than just the top 10 and gives a better idea of the whole picture.
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Post by flat3 on Jan 18, 2006 12:46:58 GMT -6
the reason this system isnt used is because while i do believe its a great idea and great system, there are obvious flaws in it. As goat said, Acadiana is obviously better than 31st. Caddo is also better than 21 and there's no way that Byrd is number 11. The great thing about this system is it shows more than just the top 10 and gives a better idea of the whole picture. As the creator of this ranking, I don't believe we should use computer rankings like this for playoff bracket decisions NOW. Here is why, in comparison to football, where the Power Ranking is used to seed teams in the playoffs. The issue is how to figure out schedule strength. Soccer has a definited disadvantage to football. In high school football, the result of EVERY SINGLE game is available. Thus, Power Ranking is very easy to calculate without any subjective elements (voting). Each team's schedule strength is incorporated through every opponent's W/L record. How about soccer? Let's take Catholic, BR (6-7-3) and CL (8-8-2) for example. Most of us think Catholic is stronger than CL despite the simple W-L records, since their schedule strengths are different (sorry, CL folks). In football, they use the record of EVERY opponent for each school to calculate schedule strength. In soccer, it's not available. I thus used LAPrep Top 10 and All Division Top 10 for schedule strength, resulting in 2.50 for Catholic (#3 of out 40 teams) and 1.56 for CL (#29), respectively. As long as I have to use these "polls" to calculate schedule strength, I don't see how this computer ranking is used for playoff brackets. If you want to use computer ranking like this for playoffs, we need the result of every single game in the state. If that's available, I have a formula ready which is equivalent to football's Power Ranking. What do we do with tournament results and games vs. outside LA? These are relatively minor issues.
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Post by flat3 on Jan 22, 2006 8:59:27 GMT -6
Computer Rating as of Jan 22 1 523.30 Jesuit 2 435.63 Laffy 3 421.44 St. Pauls 4 398.33 St. Louis 5 353.15 Vandy 6 350.95 Dutchtown 7 309.49 B.M. 8 280.07 Capt. Shreve 9 279.22 O.C 10 265.58 St. Amant 11 250.12 B.R. 12 233.64 Byrd 13 223.47 West Feliciana 14 221.35 University 15 208.61 Terrebonne 16 206.71 Carencro 17 206.41 Catholic 18 203.63 STM 19 197.43 Mandeville 20 192.82 Airline 21 190.18 Caddo 22 189.33 Fontainebleau 23 182.05 Rummel 24 181.55 Destrehan 25 178.79 Teurlings 26 167.39 ASH 27 164.85 Parkway 28 162.31 Pineville 29 160.30 St. Martin's 30 139.47 Acadiana 31 137.94 St. Charles 32 133.21 DeRidder 33 131.67 Neville 34 114.14 CL 35 111.33 Zachary 36 111.11 Newman 37 105.39 Menard 38 101.45 St. Thomas Aquinas 39 98.40 E.A. 40 89.50 Comeaux 41 51.21 Holy Cross I know that Dutchtown didn't go down enough. St. Amant and Byrd seem a little high. Rummel and Acadiana seem low (though Rummel will go down in human polls given their two losses this week). Newman is still unknown since they played only three games (2-1). This is a limit of computer ratings. Unlike fooball, one loss doesn't affect the overall win % that much since they play more games in soccer than in football. Computer rating doesn't take upward/downward trend of teams, either. In human polls, recent performances of Baton Rouge (+), Dutchtown, St. Pauls, and St. Amant (-) will count more than computer rankings.
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Post by shanksta13 on Jan 22, 2006 21:36:38 GMT -6
As far as St. Paul's is concerned... yes, they slipped. However, during their 5 game slide they still managed to come up with four wins. They have since managed solid wins against mediocre opponents and appear to be regaining form. As far as Dutchtown is concerned... yes, they lost to Baton Rouge. I still think they deserve a top 10 ranking. They are a very good team and will be right in the thick of things when playoffs roll around. I think that they should still be able to win the district. I also must say that I am very happy with the showing by Baton Rouge against Dutchtown. I saw them play in the St. Paul's tourney and thought they deserved much more recognition than they had been getting at that point. Now they have it. Great job flat3! (much better than the BCS...) LOL
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Post by flat3 on Jan 23, 2006 0:21:15 GMT -6
Some of my computer rankings predicted future performances (and human polls) quite well. Three examples are BTR, Cro, and Rummel. According to the Jan 8 computer ranking, BTR and Cro were underrated, and Rummel was overrated. After what happened in the last two weeks, the computer's "prediction" became reality. For Jan 8, I voted Cro #9 and BTR #10 based on the computer rating. No one else voted for them that week. I didn't vote for Rummel though they were #7 that week. Two weeks later (Jan 22), BTR was #7 and Cro #8 among all voters, and Rummel was nowhere!Some of the "overrated" and "underrated" programs according to the computer are as follows. Overrated: Acadiana (by a large margin) Underrated: Byrd (by a large margin), St. Amant, Terrebonne In other words, the computer is predicting Acadiana's human poll ranking will go down while those of St. Amant, Byrd, and Terrebonne will go up. This is NOT my prediction. The computer did it. Do not blame me if you are an Acadiana supporter and/or the results won't go as predicted.
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