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Post by coachray40 on Nov 26, 2006 20:50:58 GMT -6
aare those all the teams in the state? no Yeah, but we're getting close ;D
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Post by PutMeInCoach2 on Nov 26, 2006 20:52:37 GMT -6
its all the quote unquote good teams in the state! *laugh*
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Post by flat3 on Nov 26, 2006 21:03:50 GMT -6
Actually, they are all schools in the state with any records....
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Bench Warmer
Posts: 0
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Post by on Nov 26, 2006 21:53:12 GMT -6
So the practical use of the Power Rating would be to say that St. Amant is a slight favorite over Grace King but in a statistical world they are expected to play to a tie. On the other hand, if Jesuit played St. Amant they would be expected to win by at least two goals. And if St. Amant played UHigh again (a team that they tied) the Power Rating would suggest that St. Amant should win by nearly three goals. Correct?
1 16.91 Jesuit 6 0 0 5 14.27 St. Amant 3 0 3 6 14.08 Grace King 3 0 1 22 11.49 University (3) 3 1 2
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Post by flat3 on Nov 26, 2006 22:16:51 GMT -6
So the practical use of the Power Rating would be to say that St. Amant is a slight favorite over Grace King but in a statistical world they are expected to play to a tie. On the other hand, if Jesuit played St. Amant they would be expected to win by at least two goals. And if St. Amant played UHigh again (a team that they tied) the Power Rating would suggest that St. Amant should win by nearly three goals. Correct? 1 16.91 Jesuit 6 0 0 5 14.27 St. Amant 3 0 3 6 14.08 Grace King 3 0 1 22 11.49 University (3) 3 1 2 Not quite. These numbers are not translated into goal differentials. St. Amant will be a slight favorite over Grace King and a definite favorite over UHS if they play again. Unfortunately, there isn't much more than that.
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Post by doornobcrusher on Nov 26, 2006 22:20:00 GMT -6
HAHAH, Barbe ahead of Saint Louis and Vandy....?
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Post by PutMeInCoach2 on Nov 26, 2006 22:21:50 GMT -6
HAHAH, Barbe ahead of Saint Louis and Vandy....? You will see Barbe fall off in the upcoming weeks. This is why in football they dont release the BCS ranking after week 1 or 2, because they arent what people would call "reliable"..
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guru
All-District
Posts: 111
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Post by guru on Nov 27, 2006 7:33:00 GMT -6
Good work Flat3!
When do you make the pitch to LHSAA to adopt this rule for playoff seeding!?!?!?!
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Post by ShreveDad on Nov 27, 2006 7:48:03 GMT -6
First of all, thanks to Flat3 for this piece of work. Its amazing.
Some comments and questions.
1. If I was associated with Caddo Magnet I would frame the post putting them on top of the list. I'm still not sure how Jesuit with a 6-0 record would not be on top.
2. Were Dutchtown and St. Amant actually helped in the Power Ratings by not losing a bracket match but not advancing in their brackets? My guess is they would have a lower rating if they had won the bracket and then lost a semifinal (Shreve) or final (St. Thomas More).
3. St. Pauls and Vandy are most likely too low, but they both just played in a tough tournament and will rise in the ratings as time goes on.
Good Work Flat3 and Thanks!!
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Post by flat3 on Nov 27, 2006 9:19:40 GMT -6
Thanks for nice words and constructive comments, ShreveDad, First of all, thanks to Flat3 for this piece of work. Its amazing. Some comments and questions. 1. If I was associated with Caddo Magnet I would frame the post putting them on top of the list. I'm still not sure how Jesuit with a 6-0 record would not be on top. These ratings are based on the "average" point per game. Thus, Caddo (whose only recorded game is 5-0 win over Airline) received an artificially high point. While Jesuit won every one of the six games they played, their points range from 19.43 (vs. STM) to 13.00 (vs. CLA), with the average of 16.91, which is still quite high. 2. Were Dutchtown and St. Amant actually helped in the Power Ratings by not losing a bracket match but not advancing in their brackets? My guess is they would have a lower rating if they had won the bracket and then lost a semifinal (Shreve) or final (St. Thomas More). You are probably right though the difference is small. Instead of tying a bracket match (5 points + opponent's quality), they could have won (10 points + opponent's quality + shutout/blowout) and lost in the semi (0 points + opponent's quality - shutout/blowout). You could see that they didn't gain much advantage for not advancing due to a tie. If they had won one more bracket game instead of a tie, won in the semi, and lost in the final, they would have gotten 10 + 10 + 0 = 20 (6.67 per game). 3. St. Pauls and Vandy are most likely too low, but they both just played in a tough tournament and will rise in the ratings as time goes on. Yes. Except that the quality of opponents have been factored in. This rating system (which is after the football rating) heavilty depends on win/loss records. At the end of the season, my guess is that teams in the north will be rated higher than LAPREP Top 10 rankings. Good Work Flat3 and Thanks!! You are welcome. I am glad you liked it. I thank coachray40 and putmeincoach2 to make it possible.
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Post by flat3 on Nov 27, 2006 10:03:31 GMT -6
Good work Flat3! When do you make the pitch to LHSAA to adopt this rule for playoff seeding!?!?!?! Thanks, guru. I won't make a pitch to LHSAA. At least three things have to happen before even considering it. 1. Scores of EVERY GAME have to be reported. Rebel Cup results, for example, have not been included (except games involving DeRidder and Menard). 2. I need someone to back up my calculation. This takes ENORMOUS amount of time, and I am sure I made some errors. Some scores have been reported wrong also. 3. We need a long term commitment from someone (both score keepers and statisticians). I may do that this year and possibly two more years, but not after that. Of course, if LHSAA has money to subcontract it, it may take care of the problem.
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Post by Bish on Nov 27, 2006 12:01:46 GMT -6
flat3 you are such a bumb.
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Post by flat3 on Nov 27, 2006 12:38:31 GMT -6
flat3 you are such a bumb. My poor vocabulary doesn't have that term. Can you elaborate that so that I can respond?
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Post by lakeview on Nov 27, 2006 15:25:33 GMT -6
It means your are 24 karmas ahead of him.
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Post by boomboomgoal on Nov 27, 2006 15:28:17 GMT -6
OOOOOOOOOOOOOH YOU BURNED HIS KARMA RATING!!
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Post by thesim on Nov 27, 2006 17:42:50 GMT -6
if you havent noticed this guys tryin to do players like you a favor so id shut up
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Post by hideki on Nov 27, 2006 19:08:43 GMT -6
thanks flat3, good stuff
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bpongdd
Starter
He gon' do one mo.
Posts: 59
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Post by bpongdd on Nov 27, 2006 23:15:17 GMT -6
When shall we be expecting this genius idea of a somewhat BCS ranking to be updated to where there is more accuracy and up-to-date?
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Post by flat3 on Nov 27, 2006 23:36:51 GMT -6
I plan to update every week (probably Sunday). These rankings, again, may not become parallel to voting results. I predict teams from north will end up quite high. We are already seeing that among Caddo, Neville, Byrd, Loyola, Pineville, etc.
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Post by Punkaro on Nov 27, 2006 23:55:40 GMT -6
I think this is really great and I am happy I am not doing it because I don't understand at all. But it's gonna be great
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