Power Rating in Soccer

[mrdashriprock]

I expect this ranking to become more realistic as the season unfolds, possibly becoming even more realistic than the more subjective Top 10 poll.

[soccerjunqie]

Flat, I commend you on the effort but I will withhold praise until the rankings level out. I agree with the posts that it is just to early in the season. In looking at the teams, it is apparent that many of the lower ranked teams would easily handle some of the higher ranked teams. I think that this is because of the lack of games being calculated. When you look at power ratings, there is a usually a consensus that the top teams are the top teams and the order is only ground for debate. The top 10 of this poll clearly has teams that couldn't hold water to teams beneath them. Simply put, some of the top teams of this poll just aren't part of the top teams in the state. As games are played, this should even out. I guess the only true measure will be to evaluate the poll at the end of the season. At that point, it should be quite obvious which teams are the top teams in the state. Then credibility will either be gained or lost. I'm willing to wait, so keep up the effort.

[coachray40]

Ratings all have their place. I always love watching pro football pundits predicting the playoffs after week #3. Saints are a great example--5-1 after 6 weeks and now 7-5.

As long as we understand that a) the ratings will change as the season goes on, and b) there is an element of inaccuracy (that Flat3 has indicated) because we dont have all scores reported, then we can use the system to help us with our evaluations. Until last season when I created my results thread, and Flat 3 created the mathematical power rating system, there was no way to evaluate teams other than opinions by folks who watched them. Everybody loves their home team, so many times these "opinions" were biased or flawed. In this case, we have a direct means to evaluate teams by actually looking at their accomplishments for the season. A good case in point was Acadiana last season (please--no offense anyone, I'm not dissing them, just using them as an example). Pollsters had them ranked high, but as we watched results come in they seemed to dropping a fair amount of game. After the results thread was created showing their overall team performance, and then Flat3'spower rating system emerged, they dropped in the polls when numerical evaualtion was able to be used rather than opinion. I think the system is good, and ultimately will reward teams that play against good teams. The football system isnt bad--the controversy that surrounds it is that too many folks want to see their favorite team get to The Dome without actually playing someone tough. Think there is too much trash talking here, go to football forums on laprepsoccer.net.com and look at the sniping going on by parents and COACHES--pathetic. We need some sort of mathematical seeding sytem for the playoffs, and I think this is a good precursor to it. Lets ride it out, and after the third week of December, see what it looks like. By then we can sort out pretenders and contenders.

[tsumi77]

coachray40 said:

Ratings all have their place. I always love watching pro football pundits predicting the playoffs after week #3. Saints are a great example--5-1 after 6 weeks and now 7-5.

... 7- 4 coach

Our beloved coachray is having a hard time counting... seems to me like age is getting him

[flat3]

tsumi77 said:

... 7- 4 coach
Our beloved coachray is having a hard time counting... seems to me like age is getting him

Hey, let's make sure we count the score right tonight.

[coachray40]

ok ok my bad--still makes my point.

Tsumi--you better lighten up, or I will dip you in batter, deep fry and eat you!

[tsumi77]

coachray40 said:

ok ok my bad--still makes my point.

Tsumi--you better lighten up, or I will dip you in batter, deep fry and eat you!

Advice for everyone hosting a tournament: KEEP coachray AWAY from concession stand!! Once he's getting close to it, he's not only feeding himself... he's feeding the entire St Amant coaching staff (just so he can feel better about himself in case he's still hungry)!!!

[PutMeInCoach2]

tsumi77 said:

coachray40 said:

ok ok my bad--still makes my point.

Tsumi--you better lighten up, or I will dip you in batter, deep fry and eat you!

Advice for everyone hosting a tournament: KEEP coachray AWAY from concession stand!! Once he's getting close to it, he's not only feeding himself... he's feeding the entire St Amant coaching staff (just so he can feel better about himself in case he's still hungry)!!!

Well hell i think I am working under neath the wrong people, they dont feed me...

[guru]

flat3 said:

guru said:

Good work Flat3!

When do you make the pitch to LHSAA to adopt this rule for playoff seeding!?!?!?!

Thanks, guru.
I won't make a pitch to LHSAA. At least three things have to happen before even considering it.

1. Scores of EVERY GAME have to be reported. Rebel Cup results, for example, have not been included (except games involving DeRidder and Menard).

2. I need someone to back up my calculation. This takes ENORMOUS amount of time, and I am sure I made some errors. Some scores have been reported wrong also.

3. We need a long term commitment from someone (both score keepers and statisticians). I may do that this year and possibly two more years, but not after that. Of course, if LHSAA has money to subcontract it, it may take care of the problem.

I agree with everyone that we need to wait until the end of the season to see how things level out.

I do have a suggestion to help get the system adopted. It is my understanding that Football teams are required to call in their scores to the LHSAA and that they manage the data base for the power ratings. However, I do not think they would be willing to take on the task of soccer as well. Could the Louisiana High School Soccer Coaches Association with the blessing and informational support of the LHSAA manage the data base?

To solve problem #1 LHSAA has to mandate scores reporting for teams to be eligible for playoffs. Perhaps this burden can be placed on the Referees to get a signed score card from the coaches at the end of the match.

Problem #2 and #3 are solved through the coaches assoc. they appoint or hire a statistician to do the weekly scores entry. They make the information available for audit to the whole association. Scores are backed up by signed score cards turned in by the officials. At the seasons end representatives from the association present their data to LHSAA for bracket placement.

I hope someone in this forum will take this proposition to the Coaches association.

Flat3 I would love to see the spread sheet you are running. is there a way we can refine it to simplify the data entry so that we do not ask the Coaches Association to take on to big of a task.

Again we appreciate what you are doing !

[flat3]

guru said:

Flat3 I would love to see the spread sheet you are running. is there a way we can refine it to simplify the data entry so that we do not ask the Coaches Association to take on to big of a task.
Again we appreciate what you are doing !

Thanks for nice words, guru.

According to guru's request, I will send a copy of my Excel sheet to anyone interested in seeing, working with, and revising it. Please PM me with your e-mail address, and I can send the sheet as an attachment.

[Punkaro]

I don't know if someone has already said this but would there be a way to incorporate the Laprep poll into these rating like they do in the BCS (I think, but then again I don't know too much about football) I think this would level out the lesser teams and balance out the power ratings. What do you think flat3?

[flat3]

Here is the list of new Power Ratings as of 12/3. Those teams with three or fewer games didn't get rankings, since their scores are not reliable. If you know discrepancies (most likely unreported results or wrong scores), please PM to myself AND coachray40. The team records are based on coachray40's result thread. We need to have every score reported to make these rankings valid.

For the following results, games vs JV or scrimmage results are not included. The records of out-of-state teams are to my best knowledge. St. Louis' score would have been 13.84 if we excluded their four losses against out of state teams.

Any comments will be appreciated. They are rated according to the system provided on top of Page 2 of this thread.

Listed here are:
Rank, Power Rating, School (# in parentheses are Divisions), Records.

*1 17.89 Jesuit (1) 11 0 0
*2 15.28 Newman (3) 6 1 2
*3 15.08 Teurlings (3) 7 0 1
*4 15.07 Brother Martin (1) 6 0 2
*5 14.36 Fountainebleau (1) 6 1 0
*6 14.33 Lafayette (1) 4 1 1
*7 14.29 Carencro (1) 4 1 0
*8 14.26 Pineville (2) 5 1 0
*9 14.21 Grace King (1) 3 0 2
10 14.16 Shreve (1) 9 2 1
** 14.00 Thibodaux (1) 1 0 0
11 13.98 St. Amant (1) 4 0 3
12 13.73 Dutchtown (1) 5 0 2
13 13.71 Ponchatoula (1) 6 2 0
14 13.28 Parkway (2) 7 2 0
15 13.21 Loyola (2) 4 0 0
16 13.18 Rummel (1) 6 1 2
17 13.15 Neville (2) 6 1 0
18 13.05 St. Frederick (3) 3 1 0
19 12.90 DeRidder (2) 9 3 2
20 12.71 East St. John (1) 3 1 0
21 12.48 Ruston (1) 4 3 0
22 12.47 Episcopal (3) 5 2 2
23 12.21 Menard (3) 6 1 2
** 12.19 C. E. Byrd (1) 3 0 0
24 12.00 Covington (1) 5 2 0
** 12.00 Runnels (3) 1 0 0
** 12.00 Belle Chasse (2) 1 0 0
25 11.99 St. Paul's (1) 4 4 0
26 11.85 St. Th. More (2) 5 2 1
27 11.83 NISH (1) 3 1 1
28 11.67 Woodlawn (1) 5 2 2
29 11.51 E. Ascension (2) 4 3 0
30 11.49 Lee (2) 4 2 0
31 11.41 Catholic (1) 3 2 3
32 11.17 Tara (2) 3 2 0
33 10.95 Caddo (1) 3 2 0
34 10.86 Terrebonne (1) 2 1 3
35 10.75 Acadiana (1) 2 3 0
36 10.44 Comeaux (1) 3 3 1
37 10.43 Baton Rouge (1) 2 3 1
38 10.13 St. Louis (3) 3 5 0
** 10.07 Ouachita (1) 2 1 0
39 10.01 University (3) 3 3 2
** 10.00 Salmen (2) 0 0 1
40 9.97 Slidell (1) 3 1 0
41 9.92 Westgate (1) 2 3 0
42 9.56 Hammond (1) 3 3 0
43 9.45 Northshore (1) 3 3 1
44 9.38 Alexandria (2) 3 2 2
45 9.33 Mandeville (1) 2 3 3
46 9.26 St. Michael (2) 3 3 1
47 9.25 Vandebilt Cath. (2) 2 5 1
48 9.17 Sulphur (1) 4 5 1
49 9.17 S. Lafourche (1) 2 2 0
** 9.17 West Monroe (1) 2 1 0
50 9.14 Barbe (1) 2 4 2
** 9.02 Haughton (2) 1 2 0
51 8.90 Beau Chene (2) 2 2 1
** 8.88 Bolton (3) 1 2 0
52 8.79 Airline (1) 3 6 1
53 8.61 Hahnville (1) 4 4 1
54 8.50 Parkview (3) 2 2 0
55 8.50 Chalmette (2) 2 3 0
56 8.20 C Lafourches (1) 2 4 1
** 7.93 Catholic PC (3) 1 2 0
57 7.92 Opelousas (2) 1 2 1
58 7.72 St. Thomas Aquinas (3) 1 3 0
59 7.69 E. D. White (3) 2 3 0
** 7.67 East Jefferson (2) 1 1 1
60 7.29 Shaw (1) 1 3 0
61 7.26 Ben Franklin (2) 1 4 0
62 7.24 Holy Cross (1) 1 3 1
63 7.17 Destrehan (1) 2 4 1
64 6.82 Central (1) 2 4 0
** 6.78 Northwood (2) 0 3 0
65 6.78 St. Martin's (3) 1 4 0
66 6.72 Bossier (2) 1 4 1
** 6.65 Natch. Cen (1) 1 2 0
** 6.64 Pope John Paul (3) 0 2 1
** 6.50 Westminster (3) 1 2 0
67 6.43 Redemptorist (3) 2 3 0
68 6.28 Ouachita Ch. (3) 1 3 0
69 6.00 Episcopal, Acadiana (3) 0 5 1
** 6.00 West Jefferson (1) 0 1 0
70 5.96 Christian Life (3) 1 6 0
71 5.93 West Feliciana (3) 0 4 1
72 5.54 Leesville (2) 0 3 1
** 5.14 Independence (3) 0 1 0
** 5.00 Lutheran (3) 0 2 0
** 5.00 DeLaSalle (2) 0 1 0
** 4.78 Opelousas Cath. (3) 0 3 0
73 4.52 St. Charles (3) 0 5 0
** 4.50 Belaire (2) 0 2 0
** 4.50 Ellender (1) 0 2 0
74 4.04 Northlake Ch. (3) 0 5 0
** 4.00 Abbeville (2) 0 1 0
75 3.83 McKinley (2) 0 4 0
76 3.67 Calvary (3) 0 7 0
** 3.67 Huntington (1) 0 2 0
** 3.67 Wossman (3) 0 1 0
** 3.46 Notre Dame (3) 0 3 0
** 3.33 Broadmoor (2) 0 2 0
** 3.32 H. L. Bourgeois (1) 0 3 0
** 3.28 Northside (2) 0 3 0
77 3.17 Tioga (2) 0 4 0
** 3.00 Morgan City (2) 0 1 0
** 2.89 Zachary (2) 0 3 0
** 2.64 Southwood (1) 0 2 0
** 2.50 Sam Houston (2) 0 3 0
** 1.94 Peabody (2) 0 3 0

DI looks pretty good, but DII shows definite bias toward schools in North LA. DIII is a mixed bag....

[soccerguy2628]

alright... this is not something you can actually go by is it? i mean does anyone actually believe that pontchatoula is better than rummel or sps? i'm not sure this works out as well as football. there's no strength of schedule and you not everyone has played the same amount of games. i don't mean to take anything away from you because i realize it took a lot of work, it just seems somewhat unreliable.

[dbeasely17]

soccerguy2628 said:

alright... this is not something you can actually go by is it? i mean does anyone actually believe that pontchatoula is better than rummel or sps? i'm not sure this works out as well as football. there's no strength of schedule and you not everyone has played the same amount of games. i don't mean to take anything away from you because i realize it took a lot of work, it just seems somewhat unreliable.

It evens out towards the end of the year and is actually surprisingly accurate. If I remember right, last year it had Fontainebleau and Carencro ranked where most people considered was "way too high for them". They ended up in the finals. Give the system some time.

[flat3]

soccerguy2628 said:

i mean does anyone actually believe that pontchatoula is better than rummel or sps?

St. Paul's will move up as long as they keep winning.

soccerguy2628 said:

i'm not sure this works out as well as football. there's no strength of schedule and you not everyone has played the same amount of games.

Yes, the strength of schedule is considered. Please see the top of Page 2. The fact that not everyone has played the same # of games doesn't matter, since these numbers represent scores PER GAME.

As I kept saying, I am NOT claiming this is the best rating. This is what would happen IF we use objective ratings as we do for football. It this system doesn't work, just scrap it at the end of the season. I don't have any problem whatsoever.

[Punkaro]

Great system either way but like i said earlier, is there any way to incorporate the laprep poll?

[flat3]

fhssoccerfan said:

Give it some time, and I think these ratings will be pretty close.

I hope you are right. I feel comfortable with DI, but about DII and DIII I am not sure.

[flat3]

levskisoccer7 said:

Great system either way but like i said earlier, is there any way to incorporate the laprep poll?

If our goal is to get the BEST ranking, yes, we could incorporate the laprep poll. I did just that last season. And I think the last season's ranking was "better."
This time, however, I am trying to come up with something completely objective just like football. If someone (other than myself) really wants to present the idea to LHSAA, you just can't include laprep poll....

[flat3]

Power Rating as of 12/10

*1 17.56 Jesuit (1) 13 0 0
*2 15.86 Brother Martin (1) 8 0 2
*3 15.51 Teurlings (3) 9 0 1
*4 15.27 Carencro (1) 6 1 0
*5 14.92 Lafayette (1) 6 1 1
*6 14.75 Fountainebleau (1) 8 1 0
*7 14.50 Dutchtown (1) 7 0 2
*8 14.33 Shreve (1) 10 3 1
**14.00 Catholic NI (3) 1 0 0
*9 13.91 Grace King (1) 3 0 2
10 13.85 St. Frederick (3) 4 1 0
** 13.50 Thibodaux (1) 2 0 0
11 13.20 Newman (3) 7 3 3
12 13.15 Ruston (1) 5 3 0
13 13.06 Parkway (2) 8 3 0
14 13.04 St. Paul's (1) 6 4 0
** 13.00 S. Terrebonne (1) 1 0 0
15 12.86 Acadiana (1) 5 3 0
16 12.85 Pineville (2) 6 2 0
17 12.84 Caddo (1) 5 2 0
18 12.82 Ponchatoula (1) 7 3 0
19 12.81 DeRidder (2) 11 3 2
20 12.37 Episcopal (3) 6 2 2
21 12.36 Catholic (1) 5 2 3
22 12.35 Neville (2) 7 2 1
23 12.11 Menard (3) 8 1 2
24 12.02 St. Th. More (2) 7 3 2
** 12.00 Runnels (3) 1 0 0
** 12.00 Belle Chasse (2) 1 0 0
25 11.99 St. Amant (1) 4 2 3
26 11.85 Woodlawn (1) 6 3 2
27 11.72 Rummel (1) 7 4 2
28 11.58 Lee (2) 6 2 1
29 11.56 NISH (1) 6 2 1
30 11.35 Covington (1) 6 3 0
31 11.31 C. E. Byrd (1) 4 1 0
32 11.13 East St. John (1) 4 2 0
33 11.01 St. Thomas Aquinas (3) 4 4 0
34 10.91 St. Louis (3) 4 6 1
35 10.77 Loyola (2) 4 2 0
36 10.56 E. Ascension (2) 5 5 0
37 10.33 Comeaux (1) 5 5 1
38 10.31 Alexandria (2) 5 4 2
** 10.25 Ouachita (1) 2 1 0
39 10.09 Terrebonne (1) 3 2 3
40 10.09 Tara (2) 4 3 0
41 10.06 St. Michael (2) 5 3 1
** 10.00 Salmen (2) 0 0 1
42 9.97 Sulphur (1) 6 6 1
43 9.89 Hammond (1) 4 4 0
44 9.83 Northshore (1) 4 4 1
45 9.75 C Lafourches (1) 6 5 1
46 9.45 University (3) 3 4 2
47 9.31 Baton Rouge (1) 2 5 1
** 9.17 West Monroe (1) 2 1 0
48 9.07 S. Lafourche (1) 3 2 0
49 8.91 Parkview (3) 2 2 1
50 8.90 Slidell (1) 3 3 0
51 8.71 Mandeville (1) 2 5 3
52 Airline (1) 3 6 1
53 8.65 E. D. White (3) 3 4 0
54 8.62 Barbe (1) 2 6 2
55 8.54 Opelousas Cath. (3) 2 3 0
56 8.54 Hahnville (1) 5 5 1
57 8.53 Opelousas (2) 1 3 1
58 8.40 Chalmette (2) 2 3 0
59 8.14 Destrehan (1) 3 4 2
60 8.14 Beau Chene (2) 2 4 1
61 8.13 Holy Cross (1) 2 4 2
62 8.06 Vandebilt Cath. (2) 3 8 1
63 7.97 Westgate (1) 2 6 0
64 7.90 Ben Franklin (2) 1 5 1
** 7.67 East Jefferson (2) 1 1 1
** 7.56 Haughton (2) 1 2 0
65 7.55 Pope John Paul (3) 1 2 1
66 7.48 Episcopal, Acadiana (3) 1 5 1
67 7.47 Central (1) 3 5 0
68 7.32 Redemptorist (3) 3 3 0
69 7.30 Catholic PC (3) 1 3 0
70 7.13 Bolton (3) 1 3 0
71 7.02 Leesville (2) 1 5 1
** 7.00 Houma Ch. (3) 0 1 0
** 6.71 Westminster (3) 1 2 0
72 6.70 Christian Life (3) 2 6 0
73 6.69 West Feliciana (3) 1 6 1
74 6.56 Shaw (1) 1 4 0
75 6.32 St. Martin's (3) 1 6 0
** 6.18 Grace Christian (3) 0 1 0
76 6.17 Bossier (2) 1 4 1
** 6.00 West Jefferson (1) 0 1 0
77 5.80 Ouachita Ch. (3) 1 3 0
** 5.77 Natch. Cen (1) 1 2 0
** 5.36 Abbeville (2) 0 2 0
** 5.15 Northwood (2) 0 3 0
** 5.00 Lutheran (3) 0 2 0
** 5.00 DeLaSalle (2) 0 1 0
** 4.58 Independence (3) 0 2 0
** 4.56 Ellender (1) 0 3 0
** 4.48 Broadmoor (2) 0 3 0
78 4.27 St. Charles (3) 0 5 0
** 4.00 Belaire (2) 0 3 0
79 3.78 McKinley (2) 0 5 0
** 3.77 Notre Dame (3) 0 3 0
** 3.67 Wossman (3) 0 1 0
80 3.62 Northlake Ch. (3) 0 5 0
** 3.49 Northside (2) 0 3 0
81 3.44 Sam Houston (2) 1 7 0
82 3.39 Tioga (2) 0 5 0
** 3.09 Rapides (3) 0 2 0
83 3.03 H. L. Bourgeois (1) 0 5 0
84 2.97 Calvary (3) 0 7 0
85 2.86 Zachary (2) 0 5 0
** 2.75 Morgan City (2) 0 3 0
** 2.67 Huntington (1) 0 2 0
** 2.39 Southwood (1) 0 2 0
** 1.75 Country Day (3) 0 1 0
86 0.44 Peabody (2) 0 4 0
** -0.50 Reserve Ch. (3) 0 1 0

[flat3]

If we rank DI teams according to the Power Ranking, the list will be:
1. Jesuit (1) 13 0 0
2. Brother Martin (1) 8 0 2
3. Carencro (1) 6 1 0
4. Lafayette (1) 6 1 1
5. Fountainebleau (1) 8 1 0
6. Dutchtown (1) 7 0 2
7. Shreve (1) 10 3 1
8. Grace King (1) 3 0 2
9. Ruston (1) 5 3 0
10. St. Paul's (1) 6 4 0